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农产品(000061)2015半年报点评:静待区域改革落地

申萬宏源研究 ·  Aug 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company has a clear card position advantage in the agricultural batch market. The value of its land assets is remarkable, but the operating efficiency needs to be improved. Whether the reform can be used to improve the incentive mechanism and introduce industrial war investment is worth paying attention to. Investment points: Investment advice: The equity structure is delicate, and the reform of state-owned enterprises is expected to accelerate, maintain the target price of 35.92, and increase holdings. The agricultural products market is huge and the competitive pattern is scattered, and has a strong entry threshold. Therefore, there is huge room for imagination in industrial chain integration, and it can also carry new businesses such as supply chain finance. China's diet and consumption habits determine that the agricultural batch market will still be the main trading place for agricultural products. Although the company has an obvious business card advantage, its market share is less than 10%, and the operating activity under the state-owned enterprise system is not high. Once the equity structure is rationalized and the incentive mechanism implemented, the company's business development and operating efficiency will be greatly improved, keeping the 2015-2017 EPS forecast of 0.07/0.08/0.1 unchanged. The operation is in line with expectations, and e-commerce and financial services are the future strategic focus. 1H revenue/net profit reached 867 million yuan/44.34 million yuan, an increase of 1.25%/45.46% respectively, equivalent to an EPS of 0.03 yuan. The rapid increase in performance was mainly due to increased government subsidies. Specifically, the agricultural market business achieved revenue of 707 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% (a slight decrease of 5.3% in 1Q), and e-commerce platforms achieved revenue of 4.11 billion yuan, an increase of 28% over the previous year. The agricultural products industry has huge scale space, and merchants have high capital turnover requirements. It has good supply chain financial attributes. We judge that e-commerce and supply chain finance business will become the company's strategic focus in the future and become a new growth point for the company's performance. The progress of regional reforms is expected to accelerate, and incentives are still needed to improve business vitality. Currently, the difference between the actual controller, Shenzhen State-owned Assets, and the second shareholder, Life Life Insurance, is only 2 pct. Recently, the main leaders of Shenzhen State-owned Assets confirmed that the implementation of reforms will effectively address business efficiency and financial business development. Agricultural products currently own nearly 10 million square meters of equity land (some markets have not opened), and some of the land is commercial land, and the asset revaluation premium rate exceeds 150%. Once the equity structure is straightened out, the company will experience an increase in operating efficiency and a return in asset value. Furthermore, real estate financial instruments such as REITs are developing rapidly, and companies are expected to shift to asset-light management through operations in the future. Catalysts: progress in state-owned enterprise reform; release of macroeconomic policy dividends for agricultural products; risk warning: the economy continues to be sluggish; progress in state-owned enterprise reform falls short of expectations

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