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金地商置(00535.HK):上半年销售累计增速64% 充分受益一二线城市复苏

東吳證券 ·  Jul 7, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Incident, Jindi Commercial Real Estate announced operating data for June 2019: in June, it achieved contract sales of about 6.05 billion yuan, contract sales area of 326,600 square meters, average sales price of 18,400 yuan/square meter; from January to June 2019, the company achieved cumulative contract sales of 26.168 billion yuan and a sales area of 1,2403 million square meters. Review sales continued to increase in the first half of the year. The company's contract sales for June were about 6.05 billion yuan, up 114% year on year, up 67 percentage points from previous value; contract sales area was 326,600 square meters, up 117% year on year; average sales price was 18,400 yuan/square meter. The company's promotion scale continued to increase in the first half of the year, which led to a considerable increase in sales amount. Judging from the cumulative data, from January to June 2019, the cumulative contract sales volume was 26.168 billion yuan, up 64% year on year; the cumulative contract sales area was 1,2403 million square meters, up 68% year on year. The scale of land reserves is stable. By the end of 2018, the company had land reserves of 13.75 million square meters. By city, 23% were located in first-tier cities, 66% were located in second-tier cities such as Wuhan, Changsha, Nanjing, Qingdao, Suzhou, and Hangzhou; 11% were located in third-tier cities, mainly in cities such as Huai'an, Taicang, and Zhuzhou. In 2018, the company added 24 new projects, with a total construction area of 2,733 million square meters and a total land price of 306.96 yuan. In 2018, the company added an average price of 11,200 yuan/square meter of land storage. Compared with the company's sales price of 21,600 yuan/square meter in 2018, the potential gross profit level is expected to reach about 25-30%. Investment suggestion: Jindi commercial land acquisition outlook, focusing on core Tier 1 and 2 cities. Land reserves are abundant and costs are low. Currently, the land reserve scale is close to 14 million square meters. At the same time, the company also holds a large number of high-quality properties in core cities, and also has a large number of properties under construction. Rental income will continue to rise in the future. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2019-2021 will be 0.20, 0.27, and 0.31 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 4.11, 3.04, and 2.68 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: industry sales fluctuations; business risks due to policy adjustments (shed reform, regulation, tax policies, etc.); changes in the financing environment (mortgages, development loans, interest rate adjustments, etc.); business operation risks (personnel changes, construction, land acquisition, etc.); exchange rate fluctuation risk.

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