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开元股份(300338)2018年报及2019年一季报点评:内生稳健增长 治理结构改善

中信證券 ·  Apr 29, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company's financial education sector grew well and cash flow was good. The performance in 2018 was slightly lower than expected due to losses in IT training business and instrumentation business. It is expected that the divestment of the manufacturing industry in 2019, loss of IT training, and the closure of stores will lead to an improvement in the company's overall performance. The EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.58/0.80/0.90 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is only 20/14/13 times, maintaining the “buy” rating. The main business of financial education has maintained rapid growth. The company's 2018 revenue was 1.45 billion yuan (+48%), and the non-net profit withheld from the mother was 99.79 million yuan (-35%), slightly lower than the previous forecast range. By business sector, the vocational training business had revenue of 1.16 billion yuan (+89%), with impressive performance. The non-net profit withheld from the mother was 143 million yuan (+15%); the instrumentation business revenue was 270 million yuan, and the net profit of the mother was 18.95 million yuan. 2019Q1 had revenue of 356 million yuan (+51%), and non-net profit of 20.39 million yuan (+53%) was deducted from the mother. On April 17, the company received the first payment for the transfer of shares in a manufacturing subsidiary. After the instrument business is divested, the company will become a leader in the pure vocational education segment. Hengqi Education: Financial training grew steadily, and self-examination and design training exploded. After excluding the negative impact of IT training, the actual profit in 2018 exceeded 180 million yuan. In 2018, Hengqi had 170,000 education and training personnel (+23.5%), achieving an order payback of 1.26 billion yuan (+38%) and a customer unit price of 7,394 yuan (+11.8%). In 2018, confirmed revenue was $1.09 billion (+80%) and net profit was $120 million (+10%), including financial revenue of $81 million (+19%), self-examination revenue of 230 million (+393%), art and design revenue of 196 million (+68%), and IT revenue of 30.34 million (-56%). In 2018, the IT training business lost 65.38 million yuan (including impairment of goodwill of 21.97 million yuan), and all stores that lost IT business have now been shut down. Excluding IT training loss factors, the actual profit of Hengqi's financial, self-examination, and design business lines exceeded 180 million yuan. Offline store operations: A total of 397 campuses (+49) have been opened, including 338 for Hengqi Education and 51 for Tianhu Education, and 8 for traction. The rate of opening of the campus matches the growth rate of the financial business revenue, and the performance of the same store is steadily increasing. Online training business: Achieved order payback exceeding 289 million (+109%). Talent from CUHK: The volume of traffic is impressive, and the betting has been successfully completed. In 2018, the top talent had revenue of 94.11 million yuan (+48%), net profit of 27.48 million yuan (+17.5%), and net operating cash flow of 36.16 million yuan (+52.44%), successfully completing the performance gamble. CUHK talents have strong traffic acquisition capabilities. In 2018, it added 2,725,400 new registered members (+76%), achieved 398,900 online transactions (+25.8%), and a customer unit price of 249.7 yuan/person (+27%). The accurate customer base will collaborate with Hengqi Education to complete the transformation from low customer unit prices to high customer unit prices within the Kaiyuan system. Risk factors: The risk that the IT vocational training market environment will deteriorate and the business model will not adjust as expected; the risk of increased competition in the vocational training industry. Investment suggestions: The company's financial education sector is growing strongly. Based on the impressive performance of the company's first quarterly report, the net profit forecast for 2019-20 was slightly raised to 201 million/275 million yuan (the original forecast was 1.97/272 million yuan), the corresponding EPS is still 0.58/0.80 yuan, and the 2021 EPS forecast was increased 0.9 yuan. The current stock price corresponding to the 2019-2021 PE is only 20/14/13 times. The company's manufacturing business has been divested, management optimization, and fundamentals have improved, and maintained a “buy” rating.

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