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优博讯(300531):移动信息化产品型领军企业 大力开拓海外市场

中信證券 ·  Dec 5, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Overview of key investment companies: Based in China, with a global presence, a leading mobile information application company. Since its establishment in 2006, YouboXun has been focusing on the R&D, production, sales and service of mobile application equipment and overall solutions for industries such as mobile intelligent data terminals and mobile smart payment terminals. The products/solutions are used in logistics and express delivery, e-commerce, retail, manufacturing, public transportation, health care, administrative law enforcement and finance industries. YouboXun is based in China and has a global perspective, and its products are sold to many countries and regions around the world. Demand in the domestic market is growing steadily, and the long-term growth trend of demand in the Southeast Asian market is clear. According to the forecast of Zhiyan Consulting, the market size of China's intelligent logistics industry is expected to reach 585 billion yuan in 2020, and CAGR is expected to maintain a steady growth of 5-10%. Driven by the development of e-commerce, smart cities, and finance, the mobile payment market is expected to reach 82.6 trillion yuan by 2022. For overseas markets, according to Temasek's forecast, the Internet penetration rate of all major Southeast Asian countries is above 50%. The market size of the Southeast Asian Internet economy will exceed 200 billion US dollars in 2025. The mid-term market is expected to achieve 200% growth, and the long-term CAGR is close to 20%. However, considering the weak level of transportation infrastructure in Southeast Asia, especially the Indian market, and the clear demographic structure and Internet penetration rate dividends, the O2O model is expected to be the first to enjoy online traffic dividends. The management team has rich industry experience and attaches importance to technology research and development, team training and product innovation. The company's management team has rich industry resources and is forward-looking in strategic decisions such as technology route selection, product planning, and industry layout. The company focuses on investment in technology research and development and R&D team training: R&D personnel accounted for 48.88% of the total number of employees, and R&D expenses reached 556 million yuan in 2017, accounting for a stable share of about 10% of revenue, ensuring industry leadership in R&D capabilities and product innovation. The company has a complete software and hardware product system, clear competitive advantages, and major customer endorsements. The company has developed a number of smart terminal product lines, such as smart mobile data terminals, smart mobile payment terminals, portable code scanning terminals, and intelligent logistics all-in-one machines. Domestically, the company has well-known customers such as Yuantong Express, Home Delivery, SF Express, FedEx, and JD; overseas, the business revenue growth rate was 400% + in the first three quarters of 2018. In the medium term, the company is expected to maintain a trend of rapid business growth. Risk factors: risk of overseas market expansion; risk of falling prices and gross margin of smart mobile terminal products; risk of loss of technical personnel; risk of changes in tax incentives. Earnings forecasts, valuations and investment ratings. Looking at the short term, the company's traditional domestic business side is expected to maintain steady development, while overseas business continues to maintain rapid growth in the medium term. We forecast the company's EPS for 2018-2020 to be 0.48/0.62/0.80 yuan, corresponding to PE 35/27/21 times. It was covered for the first time, and a “increase in holdings” rating was given.

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