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利信达(738.HK):具备持续扩张的潜力

738.HK: has the potential for continuous expansion

招銀國際 ·  Aug 27, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Footwear retailers focused on the middle and high end of the market. We believe that Lixinda is a medium-sized retailer focusing on the mid-and high-end footwear market, with three major brands, namely Le saunda, Linea Rosa and CNE. Le saunda's business also includes two men's shoes brands, Le saunda MEN and Itauomo. The company has partnered with Disney Group to launch two new brands, which will help attract more young customers.

The perfection of the product portfolio. The company's retail business can be divided into three sectors, namely, women's shoes, men's shoes and handbags and accessories. Sales of women's shoes are the main contributor to the company's total revenue, accounting for 77.4% of total retail revenue in fiscal year 2013. We believe that sales of men's shoes and handbags and accessories will be the catalyst for the company's revenue growth in the future. Due to the downturn in overseas markets and shrinking profit margins, we expect export revenue to fall to 1.4% of the company's total revenue in fiscal year 2014.

Future expansion plans. The company had 984 retail outlets in fiscal year 2013. We don't think the company will have any large-scale expansion plans in the short term, and we predict that the total number of retail outlets will reach 1069 in fiscal year 2014. We believe that the company will continue to integrate the brand resources of its CNE, and predict that the total number of retail online stores in CNE will decrease to 130 in fiscal year 2014. At the same time, we predict that the proportion of proprietary outlets and franchise outlets to the total retail outlets will be 84.9% and 15.1% respectively in fiscal year 2014.

Production capacity and supply chain. We believe that production capacity and supply chain are the two basic factors for the company's future revenue growth. The company's existing production capacity is sufficient to meet its expansion plans in the short term. However, we believe that the company will continue to improve its supply chain, thereby reducing the average number of replenishment days and better managing inventory.

The projected compound annual growth rate of the company's profits is 12.5%. We expect the company's total revenue and net profit to grow at a compound annual rate of 9.8% and 12.5% for the 2014-16 fiscal year, respectively. The company's current share price is equivalent to 9.3 times and 8.0 times earnings for fiscal 2014 and 2015. According to the company's average price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 times over the past five years, our target price is HK$2.7. For the first time, coverage gives a holding rating.

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