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东江集团(2283.HK):整体收入增长可观分部产能利用率此消彼长

國元(香港) ·  Jul 25, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The mold business has sufficient orders, and late delivery puts pressure on gross margin: The company's mold business has sufficient on-hand orders. The company's in-hand orders for automobile molds in 2014 were 340 million yuan, an increase of 120 million yuan over 2013. The automobile mold division has grown considerably this year, and the growth of the home appliance business has slowed. Coupled with the company's acquisition of mold production bases at home and overseas separately last year, production capacity has increased. In the first quarter of this year, the production capacity of the mold division increased 35% year on year, but due to demand not keeping up with demand, some of the molds produced were not delivered. As a result, the capacity utilization rate for the first quarter was only 76.8%, a sharp drop from 90.9% in the same period last year. The annual capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 70%-80%. Lower capacity utilization may put pressure on the division's gross margin. The injection molding business grew rapidly, and the utilization rate of production capacity helped increase gross margin: The injection molding business developed optimally in the first half of the year, orders from existing customers were stable, and orders from some customers increased dramatically due to popular product sales. The share of orders from one smart product manufacturer in the company rose from a low level last year to the fourth largest customer. Order growth from famous mobile phone manufacturers has been steady. Although orders for new products have contributed less, it has been very effective in increasing gross margin. The medical and health products segment has the greatest potential for growth, which grew by 111% last year, and is expected to more than double this year. The segment is expected to account for more than 15% in the next few years. The production capacity utilization rate of the injection molding business is expected to be over 70% throughout the year, up from 67.2% last year, and gross margin is expected to increase. A recommended rating, with a target price of HK$2.76: The company is one of the few domestic suppliers that can participate in product design at the customer's product development stage. It has a good reputation in the industry and downstream customers, and can receive orders from world-renowned companies. However, the company's risk is that the company's capacity utilization rate has a very large impact on its profit margin. The sales volume of a customer's product and supplier adjustments will have a big impact on the company's capacity utilization rate. It is necessary to closely track orders to ensure that profit forecasts are close to that forecast. We predict that the company's EPS for 2015-2017 will be HK$0.23, HK$0.26, and HK$0.30 respectively, giving 12 times PE in 2015, equivalent to the target price of HK$2.76, which is 13.6% higher than the current price, giving it a recommended rating.

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