XNG’s SSS growth slowed from 5.2% in 1Q15 to -0.2% in 3Q15 as XNG isstill optimizing its menu to attract traffic flow. Although per capita spending isstill expected to decrease by approximately 2% YoY in 4Q15, traffic flowimprovement will completely offset such negative impact. We expect XNG’sSSS in 4Q15 to resume positive growth.
SSS growth in 2015 is much weaker than the management’s expectation andslowing economic growth in China is a concern. Thus, XNG number of newstores opening in 2015 is lower than previous guidance and XNG isexpected to remain relatively prudent in opening new restaurants in2016. Due to weaker SSS expectation and fewer than expected new storesopening, we revise down XNG’s EPS by 80.4%, 53.6% and 52.6%, toRMB0.009, RMB0.035 and RMB0.045 in 2015-2017, respectively.
Despite sharp earnings cut, we expect SSS growth to recover in 2016-2017on continuous traffic flow improvement and lower decline of average percapita spending. In addition, the opening of Disneyland in Shanghai in2016 is expected to help sales growth of restaurants located inShanghai to speed up. Therefore, we reiterate “Buy” but cut TP to HK$0.85on lower earnings, which represents 19.9x 2016 PER and 15.6x 2017 PER.
由于小南国仍然在调整餐单去推高客流量增长,同店销售增速从2015 年第1 季的5.2%下降至2015 年第3 季的-0.2%。虽然2015 年第4 季人均消费仍然同比下跌约2%,客流量增长预期将可以完全抵消该负面因素。因此,我们认为2015 年第4 季小南国同店销售将回复正增长。
2015 年同店销售差于此前管理层预期,而中国经济增长持续放缓是担忧。因此,小南国2015 年新店数目也低于此前管理层指引,我们认为2016 年开新店的规划将会更加审慎。由于同店销售低于预期及新店数目也差于预期,我们分别下调小南国2015-2017 年每股净利80.4%、53.6%及52.6%至人民币0.009 元、人民币0.035 元及人民币0.045 元。
虽然我们大幅下调盈利预测,但我们仍然预期2016-2017 年同店销售将回复较快增长,主要是受惠于客流量持续上升及人均消费下降幅度有所放缓。再者,上海迪士尼预期将于2016 年开幕,而位于上海的不同品牌的小南国餐厅的销售预期将加快。因此,我们重申小南国的“买入”评级,但目标价因下调盈利预测而相应调整至0.85 港元,相当于小南国19.9 倍2016 年市盈率及15.6 倍2017 年市盈率。
XNG’s SSS growth slowed from 5.2% in 1Q15 to -0.2% in 3Q15 as XNG isstill optimizing its menu to attract traffic flow. Although per capita spending isstill expected to decrease by approximately 2% YoY in 4Q15, traffic flowimprovement will completely offset such negative impact. We expect XNG’sSSS in 4Q15 to resume positive growth.
SSS growth in 2015 is much weaker than the management’s expectation andslowing economic growth in China is a concern. Thus, XNG number of newstores opening in 2015 is lower than previous guidance and XNG isexpected to remain relatively prudent in opening new restaurants in2016. Due to weaker SSS expectation and fewer than expected new storesopening, we revise down XNG’s EPS by 80.4%, 53.6% and 52.6%, toRMB0.009, RMB0.035 and RMB0.045 in 2015-2017, respectively.
Despite sharp earnings cut, we expect SSS growth to recover in 2016-2017on continuous traffic flow improvement and lower decline of average percapita spending. In addition, the opening of Disneyland in Shanghai in2016 is expected to help sales growth of restaurants located inShanghai to speed up. Therefore, we reiterate “Buy” but cut TP to HK$0.85on lower earnings, which represents 19.9x 2016 PER and 15.6x 2017 PER.
由於小南國仍然在調整餐單去推高客流量增長,同店銷售增速從2015 年第1 季的5.2%下降至2015 年第3 季的-0.2%。雖然2015 年第4 季人均消費仍然同比下跌約2%,客流量增長預期將可以完全抵消該負面因素。因此,我們認為2015 年第4 季小南國同店銷售將回復正增長。
2015 年同店銷售差於此前管理層預期,而中國經濟增長持續放緩是擔憂。因此,小南國2015 年新店數目也低於此前管理層指引,我們認為2016 年開新店的規劃將會更加審慎。由於同店銷售低於預期及新店數目也差於預期,我們分別下調小南國2015-2017 年每股淨利80.4%、53.6%及52.6%至人民幣0.009 元、人民幣0.035 元及人民幣0.045 元。
雖然我們大幅下調盈利預測,但我們仍然預期2016-2017 年同店銷售將回復較快增長,主要是受惠於客流量持續上升及人均消費下降幅度有所放緩。再者,上海迪士尼預期將於2016 年開幕,而位於上海的不同品牌的小南國餐廳的銷售預期將加快。因此,我們重申小南國的“買入”評級,但目標價因下調盈利預測而相應調整至0.85 港元,相當於小南國19.9 倍2016 年市盈率及15.6 倍2017 年市盈率。
