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同方泰德(1206.HK)点评:新兴节能领导者

國信證券(香港) ·  Jan 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Tongfang Tide is the primary beneficiary of China's green building goals. In fiscal year 15, the company acquired the intelligent business owned by Tsinghua Tongfang (THTF) (600100 CH, unrated), the majority shareholder, to consolidate the company's domestic energy saving business. Including the increase in earnings from acquisitions, we expect overall post-merger and acquisition earnings per share to increase by 9%/31%, respectively, in fiscal years 16-17. Our first buy rating is given a target price of HKD 4.51 based on a price-earnings ratio of 10 times after mergers and acquisitions in FY16. Building energy efficiency technology experts and Fang Tide provide urban and industrial energy-saving equipment and services in China, and the company has strong R&D capabilities. Its customers include provincial and municipal governments, real estate developers, industrial plants, and subway operators. The main beneficiaries of China's green building targets The government aims to increase the proportion of green buildings in new buildings to 50% by 2020, greatly increasing demand for energy-saving services and products. We expect the number of green building certifications to grow at a compound annual rate of 25% from 2015 to 2018. We believe this is also a fair benchmark for the growth of China's energy efficiency market. As for Tongfang Ted, due to the sale of its overseas business in FY15, we expect its revenue performance in FY15 to be the same in FY15 until the acquisition, but the domestic business will maintain monthly growth of 20-22% in FY15-17. Since domestic expenses and tax rates are lower than overseas, we also expect profits to increase after business disposal. Overall, we forecast a 20% /17%/33% increase in core profit in FY15 to FY15, but due to increased issuance in FY15, earnings per share only increased 3%/8%/33% year over year. In the latter half of fiscal year 15, Tsinghua Tongfang successfully sold intelligent transportation, construction, and urban heating network businesses to Tongfang Tide at a price of 528 million yuan (about 80 million US dollars). Therefore, the above business will be incorporated into Tongfang Ted's financial results in the FY15 annual report. The newly purchased businesses are leaders in the automation and energy-saving services industries, respectively, and have a high degree of collaboration with Ted's China business. In fiscal year 14, the comprehensive revenue/net profit of the above businesses reached 543/035 million yuan, respectively. Currently, we assume new business purchases will grow 18/ 16%, and profit margins are expected to grow due to business collaboration. We estimate a 24%/22% increase in earnings per share for the 16/17 fiscal year, driving a 9%/31% increase in earnings per share after mergers and acquisitions. First buy rating, target price HKD4.51 Our target price is based on a price-earnings ratio of 10 times in FY16, 9 times higher than that of Hong Kong peers, and earnings per share after acquisition. We are optimistic about the company because of its strong technical background in the energy saving industry and the support of major shareholders. Key Risks: Sales growth falls short of expectations; high receivables cycle.

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