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中奥到家(1538.HK)年报点评:并购项目逐步落地 O2O盈利需待时日

西南證券 ·  Mar 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: 2015 ended smoothly, with compound performance expectations: the company achieved operating income of 420.2 million yuan (+16.3%) for the full year of 2015; core net profit of 72.8 million yuan (+21.5%) excluding listing fees, option expenses, and O2O team equity incentive costs. Revenue and core net profit were in line with our expectations; gross margin was 33.3%, the same as in 2014. By business, property management service revenue was 352.0 million yuan (+20.2%), with a gross profit margin of 31.9%, which was 30.7% in 2014; income from individual projects increased due to a reduction in projects; revenue from co-marketing services was 66.1 million yuan (-3.2%), gross profit margin of 45.4%, the same as in 2014; the new business O2O business revenue in 2015 was 2.0 million yuan, net loss of 8.0 million yuan. The Board recommended a final dividend of HK$0.025 and a special dividend of HK$0.020 per share. The management area has been steadily expanded, and fees per unit area have risen: at the end of 2015, the company's total contract management floor area was 33.8 million square meters (+7.7%), of which the calculated revenue was 15.5 million square meters (+23.4%). The average price per calculated revenue per construction area rose from 1.77 yuan/square meter/month in 2014 to 1.81 yuan/square meter/month at the end of 2015, in line with the company's past trend of steady price increases. With the gradual marketization of pricing in the property management industry, we believe there is still room for increase in the company's fees. M&A projects will gradually be implemented in 2016, driving explosive growth in management space: the company issued a memorandum of understanding on the same day to acquire 100% of the shares of a property management company located in Zhejiang at a total price of 300 million yuan. The company manages a total floor area of about 19.46 million square meters. We expect the transaction to be completed in the middle of the year and consolidated in the second half of the year. After completion, the company's calculated earnings will double the construction area. The implementation of this acquisition will greatly enhance the certainty of the company's 16-year performance, and in the future, the company's performance will enter a rapid growth path driven by both endogenous growth and external acquisitions. The O2O business is yet to be profitable, and it still takes time to cultivate: the “Love Home” platform is still in the initial stage of burning money for rapid expansion. As of December, it covered 1,111 neighborhoods in Hangzhou, with nearly 180,000 registered users. The monthly activity rate and daily activity rate were 64% and 7%, respectively, and the order volume reached 172,000 orders in December, with an average of about 5,545 orders per day. In March 2016, the company plans to expand the scope of O2O services to Guangzhou, Foshan, Suzhou and other places, and strive to achieve balance of income and expenditure in the Hangzhou region within the year. The gradual expansion of the scale of the O2O business will put a strain on the company's profit level. We will pay close attention to the first-quarter O2O operating data that the company will release soon. Valuation and ratings: Based on the company's O2O business situation, we raised our revenue forecast and lowered our profit margin forecast. It is estimated that the company's adjusted EPS (excluding options expenses and O2O team equity incentive costs) for 16/17/18 will be RMB 0.14/0.17/0.23 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio is 9/7/5 times. We gave the company a PE valuation of 12 times in 2016, corresponding to the target price of HK$2.00, and maintained a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Acquisition progress or failure to meet expectations; O2O business achieves profit progress or falls short of expectations.

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