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天龙集团(300063)年报及季报点评:外延并表带动全年业绩大幅增长 持续并购加强数字营销布局

興業證券 ·  May 3, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Events: 1) The company released its 2015 annual report; 2) announced the results for the first quarter of 2016; 3) plans to acquire 100% of Flash Technology's shares; 4) acquires the remaining 90% of Youli Interactive's shares. Comment: The 15-year performance was basically in line with expectations. 16Q1 achieved significant growth. The combined performance of Yutang Lianchuang and Beijing Zhichuang led to a sharp increase in the company's profit. 1) In 2015, the company achieved operating income of 1,714 million yuan, up 89.34% year on year; realized net profit of 46.5567 million yuan, up 2898.58% year on year; 2) 16Q1 performance maintained rapid growth, achieving revenue of 1,012 billion yuan, up 412.79% year on year; realized net profit of 28.237 million yuan, up 3211.21% year on year; 3) The profit distribution plan was to distribute cash dividends of 0.2 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares; 4) The rapid growth in performance was mainly As a result of the merger of Yutang Lianchuang (October) and Beijing Zhichuang (March) after the acquisition was completed, Yutang Lianchuang's promised, actual, and consolidated performance was 1.00/1.05/031 million yuan, respectively, and Beijing Zhichuang's committed/actual/consolidated performance was 2340/7462/40.13 million yuan respectively, exceeding 219%. Acquire 100% of Flash Technology's shares and 90% of Youli Interactive's shares, and continue to promote the digital marketing industry chain layout. 1) The company plans to issue 15.4789 million shares at 34.77 yuan/share plus 359 million yuan in cash to acquire Flash Technology. Flash Technology is mainly engaged in digital marketing business. Its core advantage lies in “focusing on the big without going down”. It not only establishes stable cooperative relationships with high-quality media platforms such as Broadpoint Connect, WeChat MP, and Today's Headline, but also integrates fragmented media resources and long-tail traffic through its own “flash platform” to build multi-level media resources; 2) It plans to raise 293 million yuan of its own capital to acquire the remaining 90% of Youli Interactive's shares (10% of shares have been acquired in February 2015). Youli Interactive focuses on social marketing and ERP (Internet PR). Its team consists of the core members of 4A and promotes more than 4 million mainstream portals and vertical websites. After the acquisition was completed, the company's digital marketing industry chain layout was further improved. The entire digital marketing industry chain is beginning to take shape, and a new media group has already taken shape. 1) Since 2014, the company has successively acquired five digital marketing companies, namely Guangzhou Orange Fruit (based on CRM, mainly serving automotive customers), Smart Innovation (mobile marketing), Youli Interactive (social marketing), Pinjong Interaction (SEM), and Flash Technology (mobile marketing). The five companies have basically achieved full coverage from advertisers to media in their respective industry segments; 2) Pinzhong Interactive is the leading SEM (search engine marketing) enterprise in China, leading technology. They are the top 3 search agencies of Baidu, 360, Sogu, and Google. Flash technology that was acquired this time With rich media resources and customer resources in the field of mobile digital marketing, Pinzhong and Flash will become important pillars of Tianlong Group's digital marketing landscape in the future. Earnings forecasts and ratings. Considering the performance contributions of companies such as Pinzhong Interactive, Youli Interactive, and Flash Technology, it is estimated that the company's net profit for the 16/17 exam preparation is 268/346 million, the current share capital is 291 million shares, the share capital after issuing additional acquisition assets and raising supporting capital is 332 million shares, and the EPS preparation for the exam is 0.81/1.04 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price PE, 54/42 times, respectively. If performance exceeds expectations and the possibility of continued external transformation, the valuation level is expected to be further significantly reduced. We continue to be optimistic about the growth space of the digital marketing industry and the company's future external growth potential, and continue to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The synergy effect of mergers and acquisitions falls short of expectations; the macroeconomic downturn affects the marketing industry.

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