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慧聪网(02280.HK):复苏信号出现;上调至推荐 上调目标价至8港元

中金公司 ·  Jan 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Investment recommendations On January 23, the performance of Huicong Network is promising. It is estimated that net profit in 2016 may increase by more than 200% year on year (> 158 million yuan) over the same period last year, exceeding the unanimous forecast of more than 16.5%. The reasons are as follows: The performance is expected to be strong in 2016. The main reasons: 1) The online service sector is expected to achieve steady growth, the core business is expected to record a profit of about 40 million yuan, and ZOL is expected to record a profit of about 80 million yuan. 2) The Shunde O2O project is expected to contribute about 50 million yuan in profit. 3) The Internet finance sector (40% of companies) is expected to contribute about 100 million yuan in profit. We expect the balance to be around 1.7 billion yuan, with an interest spread of about 14%. We believe that Wiscom will maintain a good growth momentum in 2017. 1) B2B 2.0 will continue to create synergies in more areas covered by Wisdom Network. 2) The company increases ASP by selling packaged value-added services rather than charging membership fees. 3) B2B 2.0-related R&D has come to an end, and costs will be reduced in 2017 and 2018. 4) It is expected that the entire Internet finance business will be acquired in 2017, and profits will increase by about 60 million yuan. What is our biggest difference from the market? We are optimistic that Wiscom will continue to recover from the pressures of 2015. Potential catalysts: Full year 2016 results, revenue, and profit all showed strong signs of a rebound. The profit forecast and valuation raised the 2016 and 2017 revenue expectations by 102%/22% to $2.1 billion and $1.5 billion respectively, lowered the 2016 net profit forecast by 4% to $203 million, and raised the 2017 net profit forecast by 29% to $298 million. Introducing a 2018 revenue forecast of $1.6 billion (+13% YoY) and a profit forecast of $408 million (+37% YoY). Upgraded to recommended. Considering the rebound in the performance of Wiscom, the target price was raised by 48% to HK$8, based on an expected price-earnings ratio of 25 times in 2017. Uncertainty about risky new businesses; weak economic growth.

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