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中金吁继续「持有」神华,逢低吸纳兖煤及恒鼎

中金證券 ·  Apr 12, 2012 15:54  · Researches

According to a research report published by CICC, the macroeconomic environment is still unclear, the fundamentals of the coal industry remain weak, and the sector's rebound momentum is limited. After waiting for a full correction, it will take the opportunity to step in. In terms of allocation, undervaluation and performance certainty are preferred. H shares should continue to hold China Shenhua (01088-HK) and absorb Yanzhou Coal (01171-HK) and Hengding Industrial (01393-HK) on the low side. CICC expects that there is limited room for coal stocks to fall. If the dips fall, Yanzhou Coal Industry and Hengding Industrial, which have great potential for medium- to long-term growth, will continue to hold China's Shenhua. The Yanzhou coal industry has sufficient long-term growth points, and the synergy effect of the GCL acquisition is less than expected. As the economy gradually stabilizes, the high spot ratio will fully benefit it. In 12-18 months, the Yanzhou coal industry has the most room to rise among the three thermal coal companies. The current stock price already basically reflects the risk of declining performance. The price-earnings ratio in 2012 was only 8.8 times, the lowest for the three thermal coal companies. Hengding Industrial's production growth is highly deterministic. The compound growth rate in 2011-15 was 25%. The stock price already basically reflects the risk of declining performance. The price-earnings ratio in 2012 was 6.2 times. It is recommended to gradually step in the pullback and pay attention to the company's convertible debt plan and the clean-up of coal-related charges in Guizhou. China's Shenhua's production growth in 2012 is expected to be higher than the guideline. The integrated model will effectively hedge against the risk of falling coal prices. It has the characteristics of both offense and defense. The price-earnings ratio in 2012 was 11 times higher. According to CICC, since it indicated the risk at the end of February, China Coal Energy (01898-HK) has fallen by 11.1%, and part of the risk has been released, but it will maintain consolidation in the short term, and the catalyst business will need to wait patiently for the project to be produced or injected before the catalyst business has a chance to rebound. CICC gave China Shenhua a target price of 45 yuan, a target price of 10.3 yuan for China Coal Energy, 21.5 yuan for the Yanzhou coal industry, and 3.7 yuan for Hengding Industrial.

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