Incident: The annual report and quarterly report revealed that revenue continued to increase year-on-year: revenue was 17.384 billion yuan in 2022, 757% year on year; net profit returned to the mother was 616 million yuan, +5.12% year on year; in terms of revenue structure, wind turbines amounted to 16.317 billion yuan, power generation revenue was 259 million yuan, new energy EPC general contracting was 423 million yuan, and other revenue was 385 million yuan. Q1 2023 achieved revenue of 3.482 billion yuan, +2.00% year on year; net profit of the mother was 74 million yuan, or -34.05% year on year.
The profitability of the wind power mainframe business stabilized: in 2022, the gross profit margin of the company's wind power industry was 17.77%, +0.32pct over the previous year; among them, the gross margin of the wind turbine business reached 17.10%, +0.63pct over the previous year. Profitability has steadily rebounded year over year.
The foreign sales capacity of wind turbines increased marked+high-capacity units accounted for a high proportion: in 2022, the company achieved wind turbine sales revenue of 16.317 billion yuan, +3.76% year on year. Achieved foreign sales capacity of 7,118.74 MW, +30.26% over the same period last year. In 2022, the company placed 12.28 GW of new orders, exceeding 10 GW for two consecutive years. The company's on-hand orders reached a record high; of the new orders, orders for high-capacity units of 5.XMW and above accounted for more than 90%.
The “two seas” strategy achieved a historic breakthrough: in 2022, orders for 260,000 kilowatt wind power equipment were added to overseas markets, deepened the layout of regions such as Vietnam and Kazakhstan, and achieved breakthroughs in markets such as Europe and South America. In terms of offshore wind power, the company won the bid for the first offshore wind power project - Guodian Zhejiang Ningbo Xiangshan No. 1 (Phase II) 500,000 kilowatt offshore wind project, continuing to promote the development of offshore wind power bases and offshore wind power resources.
Investment suggestions: The profitability of the company's wind power business has stabilized, and the “two seas” strategy has broken through rapidly. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 1730/203.6/24.45 billion yuan in 2023-2025, and net profit of 75/ 87/1.17 billion yuan. The corresponding PE was 12.4/10.7/7.9 times respectively, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expected risks; risk of large fluctuations in upstream raw material prices; risk of increased industry competition; risk of new capacity investment falling short of expectations.