occurrences
On April 24, 2023, the company issued an announcement that its core product, paclitaxel polymer micelle for injection, was included in the “Chinese Society of Clinical Oncology (CSCO) Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment Guidelines (2023)”. Combined with platinum, it was used for first-line treatment of stage IV driverless genes, squamous cell carcinoma, and non-squamous cell lung cancer (grade I recommended class 1A evidence).
reviews
Paclitaxel polymer micelles have been included in a number of authoritative diagnosis and treatment guidelines, and in-hospital sales are about to accelerate.
In October 2021, the company's injectable paclitaxel polymer micelle was approved for first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer; the product used nanotechnology to innovate dosage forms based on traditional paclitaxel, and was approved for marketing as a Class 2.2 innovative drug. Compared with other paclitaxel dosage forms already on the market, micellar has strong stability in vivo, high sensitivity to intratumoral drug release, relatively better safety, and convenience of clinical use.
In June 2022, injectable paclitaxel micelles were included in the “Chinese Medical Association Lung Cancer Clinical Diagnosis and Treatment Guidelines (2022 Edition)”. Combined platinum was recommended for first-line treatment of patients with negative drivers of non-squamous cell carcinoma (category 1 recommended evidence) and first-line treatment of patients with negative drivers of squamous cell carcinoma (category 1 recommended evidence); in January 2023, injectable paclitaxel micelles were included in the “Chinese Treatment Guidelines for Stage IV Primary Lung Cancer (2023 Edition)”, and combined platinum for patients with stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) chemotherapy; In April 2023, injectable paclitaxel micelles were included in the “Chinese Society of Clinical Oncology (CSCO) Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (2023)”, and platinum was used for first-line treatment of stage IV undriven genes, squamous cell carcinoma, and non-squamous cell lung cancer (Class I recommended Class 1A evidence).
2022 was the first full commercialization year for this product; without medical insurance, not recommended by CSCO clinical guidelines, and affected by the pandemic, the company achieved annual sales of 235 million yuan, an increase of 5687% over the previous year. We believe that as micellar products are being recommended in professional medical treatment guidelines one after another, it will be a probable event that product influence and in-hospital sales will be greatly accelerated.
As many indications are being expanded, more micellar products are being researched, and the pipeline capacity is abundant. According to the company's annual report, there have been more than 20 phase II and III clinical trials of the micellar products mentioned above, involving various types of cancer such as breast cancer, lung cancer, and pancreatic cancer. At the same time, the company is developing a number of innovative products such as targeted PMC (targeted polypeptide-coupled nanocicular micelles) for pancreatic tumors.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We maintain our profit forecast and expect to achieve revenue of 498/88/ 1,353 million yuan in 2023/24/25; the net profit to the mother for 2023/24/25 is expected to be 304/557/885 million yuan.
Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risks such as reliance on a single product, falling short of expectations in commercialization, loss of majority shareholders' holdings, and rapid technological changes in the company's drug delivery system innovation field.