Boeing soared into the sky

美股研究社 · Apr 17, 2023 01:11

斯蒂芬布拉希尔

作者 |Eric Sprague

编译 | 华尔街大事件

虽然波音(NASDAQ:AMZN)每月的订单、取消、交付和其他订单变化的概览并不总是直接影响股价，但跟踪订单和交付情况很重要，因为这提供了最小的信息块，可以从中评估这家美国喷气式飞机制造商的情况并尽早发现趋势。

股票表现

有趣的是，伴随着强劲的订单、交付和波音737 MAX在华的回归等利好消息传来，波音股票在3月份才达到市场表现。然而，这仍然好于 2023 年的表现不佳。

年初至今，可以看到一些积极因素推动的优异表现，这些积极因素在当前的商用飞机性能以及增产计划中变得越来越明显。

evoX数据分析

3月，波音总订单量为60架，环比减少60架，其中单通道喷气式飞机的订单流入量为67%，宽体机订单流入量为33%：

日本航空公司（OTCPK：JAPSY）订购了 21 架波音 737 MAX 飞机。

卢森堡航空公司订购了 2 架波音 737 MAX 飞机。

一位身份不明的客户订购了 17 架波音 737 MAX 飞机。

长荣航空订购了 5 架波音 787-9 飞机。

汉莎航空（OTCQX：DLAKF）订购了 7 架波音 787-9 飞机。

一位身份不明的客户订购了 8 架波音 787-8 飞机。

本月，订单簿发生了以下变化：

新加坡航空公司（OTCPK：SINGY）取消了 8 架波音 737 MAX 飞机的订单。

一位身份不明的客户取消了 8 架波音 737 MAX 飞机的订单。

AerCap 取消了 2 架波音 787-10 飞机的订单。

一位身份不明的客户取消了 4 架波音 787-8 飞机的订单。

AerCap 选择通用电气作为 6 架波音 787-9 和 2 架劳斯莱斯 (OTCPK:RYCEF)的供应商

Air Lease Corporation从阿曼航空公司手中接管了波音 787-9 的一个交付时段。

美国航空公司被确定为一架波音 787-8 的客户。

CES Leasing 被确定为一架波音 777F 的客户。

大湾航空公司被确定为 15 架波音 737 MAX 飞机的客户。

日本航空公司被确定为一架波音 787-8 的客户。

挪威航空公司 (OTCPK:NWARF) 的订单已转移至挪威航空公司。

新加坡航空公司的子公司酷航将三架波音 787-9 的订单转移给新加坡航空公司，并将其改装为更大的波音 787-10。

西南航空公司被确定为一架波音 737 MAX 的客户。

TUI Travel 被确定为一架波音 737 MAX 的客户。

在 2 月份相对疲软之后，3 月份看起来好多了，3 月份第一季度总订单翻了一番。明显的积极因素是宽体组合。通常我希望看到宽体机和单通道机之间的比例为 40-60，但 3 月的表现一点也不差。

在取消和其他突变方面，不会说有任何大的负面异常值。对于波音来说，这是一个强劲的月份，有 60 份订单，价值 48 亿美元，同时它从账面上取消了 22 份价值 160 万美元的订单，使净订单达到 42 份，价值略高于 32 亿美元。一年前，波音公司预订了 53 架订单和 15 架取消订单，使其净订单达到 38 架，净订单价值为 23 亿美元。因此，到 2023 年 3 月，我们看到飞机总订单和价值的上升以及净订单和价值的显着增长。

本月，ASC 606 减少了 23 个单位。波音 737 计划中的三个和波音 777 计划中的 19 个，可能与全日空航空公司的波音 777X 订单有关。ASC 606 调整是存在采购协议但不满足存在采购合同之外的其他要求的订单。增加意味着更多的订单是可疑的，而减少意味着满足了额外的要求或者被认为可疑的订单被取消了。波音公司目前有 801 份订单不符合附加标准。

波音公司

3 月份，波音公司交付了 64 架喷气式飞机，而上个月为 28 架。这家美国喷气机制造商交付了 53 架单通道喷气式飞机和 11 架宽体飞机，总价值达 44 亿美元：

波音公司交付了 53 架波音 737 飞机，其中包括 53 架波音 737 MAX 飞机和一架波音 P-8A。

波音向联邦快递交付了一架波音 767-300F

波音交付了7架波音787，包括2架-8、4架-9和1架-10。

正如我们所习惯的那样，3 月份的交付数量出现了上升，并出现了一些明显的积极因素。第一个积极因素是波音 737 项目交付的 53 架飞机。理想情况下，我们每月从库存中看到 10 次交付，另外从生产线中看到 30 次交付。因此，至少有 40 次交付。波音公司在 3 月份超过了这个数字，这是一个积极的迹象，但我们需要看到连续几个月连续达到 40 架最低交付量。我们还看到波音 767 和波音 787 再次出现。两架飞机都在此处和此处讨论了短暂的交付停留。

所以总的来说，与去年相比，3 月份的交付量增加了 23 台，从41 台增加到 23 台，而这些交付的价值从 25 亿美元增加到 44 亿美元，这反映了数量和交付组合的改善。

当月订单出货比按订单计算为 0.9，按价值计算为 1.1，而订单流入取消率为 36.7%，积压订单取消率为 0.4%。今年的订单出货比看起来非常强劲，按数量衡量的比率为 0.9，按价值衡量的比率为 1.2。我们正在寻找高于 1 的订单出货比，但即使实现了这一点，这些比率也应该放在我们看到强劲需求但供应方将订单转化为交付的巨大压力的背景下。

展望2023，波音的新目标是多少？

对于2023 年，波音公司尚未提供官方交付目标，但该公司预计将交付 400 至 450 架波音 737 和大约70-80 架波音 787。总的来说，我预计会有535-595 次交付。

波音公司在 3 月份向客户交付了 64 架飞机，而空中客车公司交付了 61 架飞机。第一季度，波音交付了 130 架喷气式飞机，而空客为 127 架。因此，虽然看起来波音是问题更大的制造商，但两家制造商在今年前三个月交付了相同数量的飞机。

结语

总的来说，波音公司在为其关键项目争取订单方面没有遇到重大挑战。在订单方面，继续看到潜在客户实现。波音公司最近宣布的更大订单确实需要一些时间才能完全敲定，所以我们还没有看到这些反映出来，但确实看到了对商用飞机的健康需求，宽体飞机的需求正在复苏。

END

美股研究社（meigushe）所发布文章不具有投资建议，请各位投资者自行判断。

听说好看的人都点赞了~

STEPHEN BRASHILL

Author |Eric Sprague

Compilation | The Wall Street Affair

While Boeing (NASDAQ: AMZN)'s monthly overview of orders, cancellations, deliveries, and other order changes doesn't always directly impact stock prices, it's important to track orders and deliveries because it provides the smallest block of information from which to evaluate the US jet maker's situation and spot trends early on.

Stock performance

Interestingly, along with positive news such as strong orders, deliveries, and the return of the Boeing 737 MAX in China, Boeing shares only achieved market performance in March. However, this is still better than the poor performance of 2023.

From the beginning of the year to now, we can see excellent performance driven by a number of positive factors, which are becoming more and more evident in current commercial aircraft performance and production growth plans.

EvoX data analysis

In March, the total number of Boeing orders was 60, a decrease of 60 aircraft over the previous month. Among them, the order inflow for single-channel jets was 67%, and the order inflow for wide-body aircraft was 33%:

Japan Airlines (OTCPK: JAPSY) has ordered 21 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft.

Air Luxembourg has ordered 2 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft.

An unidentified customer ordered 17 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft.

EVA has ordered 5 Boeing 787-9 aircraft.

Lufthansa (OTCQX: DLAKF) has ordered 7 Boeing 787-9 aircraft.

An unidentified customer ordered 8 Boeing 787-8 aircraft.

The following changes have been made to the order book this month:

Singapore Airlines (OTCPK: SINGY) has cancelled orders for 8 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft.

An unidentified customer cancelled an order for 8 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft.

AerCap has cancelled an order for 2 Boeing 787-10 aircraft.

An unidentified customer cancelled an order for 4 Boeing 787-8 aircraft.

AerCap selects General Electric as supplier for 6 Boeing 787-9 and 2 Rolls Royce (OTCPK: RYCEF)

Air Lease Corporation took over a delivery period for the Boeing 787-9 from Oman Air.

American Airlines was identified as a customer for a Boeing 787-8.

CES Leasing was identified as a customer for a Boeing 777F.

Grand Bay Airlines has been identified as a customer for 15 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft.

Japan Airlines was identified as a customer for a Boeing 787-8.

Orders from Norwegian Air (OTCPK: NWARF) have been transferred to Norwegian Air.

Scoot, a subsidiary of Singapore Airlines, transferred orders for three Boeing 787-9s to Singapore Airlines and converted them to larger Boeing 787-10s.

Southwest Airlines has been identified as a customer for a Boeing 737 MAX.

TUI Travel was identified as a customer for a Boeing 737 MAX.

After a relatively weak February month, March looked much better, and total orders doubled in the first quarter of March. A clear positive factor is the wide body combination. Normally I'd like to see a 40-60 ratio between a wide-body machine and a single-channel machine, but March's performance wasn't bad at all.

I wouldn't say there are any major negative outliers in terms of cancellations and other mutations. It's been a strong month for Boeing, with 60 orders worth $4.8 billion, while it cancelled 22 orders worth $1.6 million from its books, bringing net orders to 42, worth just over $3.2 billion. A year ago, Boeing ordered 53 orders and 15 cancelled orders, bringing its net order to 38, with a net order value of $2.3 billion. As a result, by March 2023, we saw a rise in total aircraft orders and values and a significant increase in net orders and values.

This month, ASC 606 lost 23 units. Three of the Boeing 737 plans and 19 of the Boeing 777 plans may be related to ANA's Boeing 777X order. An ASC 606 adjustment is an order where a purchase agreement exists but does not satisfy requirements other than the existence of a purchase contract. An increase means that more orders are questionable, while a decrease means that additional requirements have been met or that are considered suspicious are cancelled. Boeing currently has 801 orders that do not meet the additional criteria.

Boeing

In March, Boeing delivered 64 jets, compared to 28 last month. The American jet maker delivered 53 single-aisle jets and 11 wide-body jets worth a total of $4.4 billion:

Boeing delivered 53 Boeing 737s, including 53 Boeing 737 MAX and a Boeing P-8A.

Boeing delivered a Boeing 767-300F to FedEx

Boeing delivered 7 Boeing 787s, including 2 -8, 4 -9, and 1 -10.

As we're used to, there was a rise in delivery numbers in March, and there were some clear positives. The first positive factor was the delivery of 53 aircraft from the Boeing 737 project. Ideally, we would see 10 deliveries per month from inventory and an additional 30 deliveries from the production line. As a result, there were at least 40 deliveries. Boeing surpassed that number in March, which is a positive sign, but we need to see a minimum delivery of 40 units for several consecutive months. We've also seen Boeing 767 and Boeing 787 reappear. Both aircraft have discussed short delivery stops here and here.

So overall, compared to last year, there was an increase of 23 units delivered in March, from 41 to 23, while the value of these deliveries increased from $2.5 billion to $4.4 billion, reflecting improvements in volume and delivery mix.

The order-to-ship ratio for the month was 0.9 per order and 1.1 in terms of value, while the order inflow cancellation rate was 36.7%, and the backlog order cancellation rate was 0.4%. This year's order-to-order ratio appears to be very strong, with a ratio of 0.9 measured by volume and 1.2 by value. We're looking for order-to-ship ratios higher than 1, but even if that were to happen, those ratios should be placed in a context where we saw strong demand but the supply side was under tremendous pressure to turn orders into delivery.

Looking ahead to 2023, what are Boeing's new goals?

For 2023, Boeing has yet to provide official delivery targets, but the company expects to deliver 400 to 450 Boeing 737s and approximately 70-80 Boeing 787s. Overall, I expect 535-595 deliveries.

Boeing delivered 64 aircraft to customers in March, while Airbus delivered 61 aircraft. In the first quarter, Boeing delivered 130 jets compared to 127 by Airbus. So while it looks like Boeing is the more problematic manufacturer, the two manufacturers delivered the same number of aircraft in the first three months of this year.

epilogue

Overall, Boeing did not face significant challenges in securing orders for its key projects. On the order side, we continue to see leads fulfilled. The larger order recently announced by Boeing will indeed take some time to fully finalize, so we haven't seen this reflected yet, but we have seen the health demand for commercial aircraft, and demand for wide-body aircraft is recovering.

END

The article published by the US Stock Research Institute (meigushe) contains no investment advice. Investors are requested to make their own judgments.

I heard that all the good-looking people liked it~

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

波音冲上云霄

Boeing soared into the sky

Risk Disclaimer

Statement