Earnings Update: ATyr Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIFE) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
Earnings Update: ATyr Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIFE) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
aTyr Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIFE) just released its latest yearly results and things are looking bullish. Revenues of US$10m beat estimates by a substantial 4,054% margin. Unfortunately, aTyr Pharma also reported a statutory loss of US$1.60 per share, which at least was smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for aTyr Pharma
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the six analysts covering aTyr Pharma, is for revenues of US$6.75m in 2023, which would reflect a painful 35% reduction in aTyr Pharma's sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$1.36 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$10.1m and losses of US$1.43 per share in 2023. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a meaningful downgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
There was no major change to the US$19.83average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values aTyr Pharma at US$35.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$9.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the aTyr Pharma's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 35% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 30% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 14% per year. It's pretty clear that aTyr Pharma's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple aTyr Pharma analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for aTyr Pharma (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
ATyr製藥公司(納斯達克:生活)剛剛發佈了最新的年度業績,情況看起來很樂觀。1000萬美元的收入比預期高出4054%。不幸的是,aTyr Pharma也公佈了每股1.60美元的法定虧損,這至少小於分析師的預期。在業績公佈後,分析師們更新了他們的收益模型,如果他們認為公司的前景發生了巨大變化,還是一切照舊,那將是一件好事。因此,我們收集了最新的盈利後法定共識估計,看看明年可能會發生什麼。
查看我們對aTyr Pharma的最新分析
考慮到最新的業績,研究aTyr Pharma的六位分析師目前的共識是,2023年的收入為675萬美元,這將反映出aTyr Pharma在過去12個月的銷售額痛苦地下降了35%。每股虧損預計將爆炸式增長,達到每股1.36美元。在這一財報公佈之前,分析師們一直在預測2023年營收為1010萬美元,每股虧損1.43美元。我們可以看到,在這次更新中,市場情緒肯定發生了變化,分析師們對明年的收入預期進行了有意義的下調,同時降低了他們的虧損預期。
19.83美元的平均價格目標沒有重大變化,表明收入和收益的調整預計不會對業務產生長期影響。然而,這並不是我們可以從這些數據中得出的唯一結論,因為一些投資者在評估分析師的價格目標時,也喜歡考慮預期中的價差。目前,最樂觀的分析師對Tyr Pharma的估值為每股35.00美元,而最悲觀的分析師將其估值為9.00美元。正如你可以看到的,估計的範圍很大,最低的估值不到最樂觀估計的一半,這表明對於分析師認為這項業務將如何表現,存在一些強烈的分歧。考慮到這一點,我們不會過於依賴共識目標價,因為這只是一個平均值,分析師顯然對該業務有一些嚴重的分歧。
這些估計很有趣,但當看到預測如何與aTyr Pharma過去的業績和同行業同行進行比較時,描繪一些更寬泛的筆觸可能是有用的。我們要強調的是,銷售預計將逆轉,預計到2023年底,年化收入將下降35%。與過去五年30%的歷史增長率相比,這是一個顯著的變化。與我們的數據相比,我們的數據表明,同一行業的其他公司預計收入將以每年14%的速度增長。很明顯,aTyr Pharma的營收預計將遠遠遜於整個行業。
底線
最重要的是,分析師們再次確認了他們對明年每股虧損的估計。不幸的是,他們也下調了收入預期,我們的數據表明,收入預計會比整個行業表現得更差。即便如此,每股收益對企業的內在價值更為重要。即便如此,長期盈利能力對價值創造過程更為重要。共識目標價沒有實際變化,這表明根據最新估計,該業務的內在價值沒有發生任何重大變化。
考慮到這一點,我們仍然認為,投資者需要考慮的更長期的業務軌跡要重要得多。我們有來自多位aTyr Pharma分析師的預測-到2025年,你可以在我們的平臺上免費看到它們。
在進行下一步之前,您應該瞭解ATyr Pharma的2個警告標誌(1不容忽視!)我們已經發現了。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎?保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
風險及免責聲明
- 分享到weixin
- 分享到qq
- 分享到facebook
- 分享到twitter
- 分享到微博
- 粘贴板
使用瀏覽器的分享功能,分享給你的好友吧