2022 is a year of great changes in the global market. Under the uncertain and terrible background of high inflation, the most hawkish interest rate hikes by European and American central banks in decades, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis, and the sudden increase in the possibility of a global recession, the darling of the stock market a year ago instantly became a loser. the former "cold palace prisoner" has become the best money collector in a twinkling of an eye.

2022The biggest winner in European and American stock markets in #: energy stocks

Geopolitical conflicts and soaring demand in the post-epidemic era have pushed up oil and gas prices, making energy the only stock market sector to rise this year.

In this year, with one trading day to go, the US energy sector has returned more than 60 per cent, significantly better than all other sectors in the S & P 500, where none of the industry's total returns have risen by 5 per cent. it is also in sharp contrast to the S & P's stock market decline of about 20%. Similarly, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index is down 12 per cent this year, while "old economy" sectors such as oil and mining are up 30 per cent.

Oil and gas stocks dominated the list of the best U.S. stocks in 2022, with as many as 15 fossil fuel operators among the 25 best performers in the S & P 500.

Among them, western oil, which Buffett favored, topped the list with a gain of more than 110 per cent, while shares of Constellation Energy and Hess Corp nearly doubled, followed by Exxon Mobil Corp, oil service suppliers Schlumberger and Halliburton, and oil and gas exploration developer APA, all up 70 per cent this year. Marathon oil rose by more than 60% and Chevron Corp by more than 50%.

Asset managers are flooding back into energy stocks, doubling the sector's share of the s & p 500 to about 5 per cent, a far cry from the trend that wall street has shunned over the past few years because of climate issues.

In oil and gas zero, share prices have risen almost universally, from independent producers such as EQT to integrated supergiants such as Mobil, which recently surpassed electric car darling Tesla, Inc. in market capitalization.Coal and solar companies also skyrocketedFirst Solar is up about 70 per cent this year.

Meanwhile, US stocks Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) are up more than 60 per cent this year, the US 12-month Gas Fund (UNL) is up nearly 50 per cent, and a number of oil / energy funds run by top investment companies such as Fidelity, Vanguard and Blackrock's iShares are all up 50 to 80 per cent this year.

In the second half of this year, under the influence of expectations of weaker global crude oil demand, international oil prices continued to fall, but the energy sector, which has been following oil prices, rose nearly 27% against the trend, and energy companies ushered in the most profitable year in history. Generous dividends and share buybacks also boosted share prices.

Analysts generally believe that despite the current global recession, shell and BP oil will still return as much as 20 per cent next year, and that expectations of higher oil prices next year will increase the incentive for funds to shift from technology / growth stocks to value stocks. Oil and gas and other commodity manufacturers have traditionally provided safe havens during economic downturns. Deloitte believes that more restrained capital spending by operators and a large amount of free cash flow from the rebound in oil prices over the past year and a half could allow US oil and gas companies to pay off more than $300 billion in debt accumulated over the past decade by 2024:

Energy demand rebounded rapidly after the epidemic, but new energy fell off the chain at a critical moment, and the world embraced more stable, reliable and cheap traditional energy, giving traditional energy the power to cross the cycle.

2022Other winners in European and American stock markets in #: defensive value stocks and defense stocks

In the volatile and bleak stock markets of Europe and the United States, defensive sectors such as utilities, health care and essential consumer goods have become safe havens for investors this year. The profitability and consistency of these stocks have been historically tested, and the nature of "consumer rigid demand" has made them somewhat immune to the economic slowdown and can provide stable returns through healthy dividends.

As a result, share prices of power distribution and natural gas company Consolidated Edison, canned food leader Campbell Soup and Merck Pharmaceuticals have all jumped in double digits this year, with Edison and Merck hitting record highs.

As of Wednesday, the s & p utilities sector was down 1.2% for the year, consumer necessities down 3.1%, and health care down 4.2%, while the s & p 500 index was down nearly 21% over the same period.The Dow, which is dominated by value stocks, has fallen more than 9% this year, making it the best performing major stock index in the United States.And insist on standing above the 200-day moving average, in sharp contrast to the S & P market, which has returned to its seven-week low and the Nasdaq, which has refreshed its lowest since July 2020.

The data show that the S & P utilities and health care sector outperformed the S & P market this year by the biggest margin since 2000, while the essential consumer goods sector outperformed the index by the highest level since 2008. Corporate dividend yields in the s & p utilities and essential consumer goods sectors are 3 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively, according to FactSet, one of the highest dividend payouts in the benchmark index.

The favor of investors is also reflected in the fact that the valuation of the above defensive sector is already on the high side relative to other industries. S & P essential consumer goods, utilities and health care stocks are trading at 21, 19 and 18 times year-end earnings, respectively, compared with 17 times for the S & P 500 over the same period. Some analysts say companies with more predictable profitability will shine in the environment in which central banks in Europe and the United States continue to raise interest rates.

In addition, the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in late February surprised the market, and the increase in Western government aid and military spending led to a sharp surge in European and American defense stocks. Us stocks such as Lockheed Martin Corp and Northrop Grumman are up nearly 40 per cent, while German defense contractor Rheinmetall AG is up more than 120 per cent. Other European defense stocks such as Thales SA, Dassault Aviation SA and SAAB AB are up 60 to 80 per cent this year, and many analysts believe the double-digit rally will continue into the coming year.

Among other value stocks, big European pharmaceutical companies performed well, with AstraZeneca PLC, which has a broad anti-cancer drug portfolio, up 20 per cent and Novo Nordisk, a Danish drug company that is in short supply of its obesity drug Wegovy, up more than 20 per cent.

The return on interest income from the increase in interest rates is also good for bank stocks.European bank stocks rose 19% in the fourth quarter, erasing almost all of the losses in 2022. According to a survey conducted by Bank of America Corporation in November, half of European fund managers see bank stocks as an "investment paradise when interest rates go up". But credit suisse, which is mired in huge losses, business restructuring and a massive loss of customers, is an accident, plunging 66% this year and hitting record lows.

2022The biggest loser in European and American stock markets: technology stocks

Low interest rates, low inflation and the dividends of the "home economy" during the epidemic are gone, and large technology companies in the United States have experienced a nightmarish year, losing nearly $4 trillion in market capitalization in 2022. S & P communications services and consumer discretionary sectors fell about 40% this year.

Among star technology stocks, Amazon.Com Inc and Netflix Inc halved during the year, Meta and Tesla, Inc. fell 66 per cent, Alphabet Inc-CL C fell 40 per cent, Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp fell more than 25 per cent. Tesla, Inc. was the fifth largest company by market capitalization in the S & P 500 at the beginning of the year, while Meta ranked sixth, highlighting the magnitude of the change. The market capitalization of Tesla, Inc. and Amazon.Com Inc both fell below $1,000bn this year, while Apple Inc lost $2,000bn in intraday trading on Wednesday.

With the ups and downs of demand, global semiconductors suddenly turned from a shortage of supply at the time of the outbreak to a surplus, and chip stocks, which were once in the limelight, plummeted. The Philadelphia semiconductor index has repeatedly hit a seven-week low, down 36 per cent this year, while AMD and NVIDIA Corp, the best performers in US stocks two years ago, fell more than 50 per cent.

The decline of technology stocks this year is better than the "bull market queen wooden sister" Cathie Wood's fund "hit the face" performance. ETF ARKK, the flagship innovation focused on betting on growth stocks, fell nearly 70%, while large positions in Tesla, Inc., digital currency exchange Coinbase, cloud video conferencing provider Zoom, streaming Roku and telemedicine platform Teladoc Health all plunged.

Higher interest rates and inflation, slower economic growth and inflated valuations during the epidemic are at the root of the growth stock disaster.2022Age refers to rare running and winning.指，The bull market led by technology stocks is no longer there because:

As in 2011, 2022 was plagued by stagflation, driving investors into the Dow to avoid risk. Unlike in 2011, the high growth of FAANG earnings has disappeared, and the Fed has shifted from a partial dove in 2011 to an epic rate hike, hitting the overvalued Nasdaq.

Wall Street reported that when summing up the third-quarter earnings of US technology stocks, Goldman Sachs Group Jeff Currie, head of commodities, was quoted as saying that US technology companies reported a terrible war in the third quarter, which can be called a "revenge of the old economy", and the worst situation for technology stocks is yet to come.

Over the past decade, US stocks have benefited from global monetary easing and experienced an ultra-long bull market, with technology companies represented by FAANMG doing particularly well and becoming the "engine" driving the Nasdaq and US stocks as a whole.

But as the Fed began a cycle of aggressive interest rate hikes, the tide receded quickly, and the next day's spectacular performance engine of technology stocks stalled one after another. This may be just the beginning, and as the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet, valuations of technology stocks are expected to have room for a correction.

2022Other losers in European and American stock markets: encrypted currency, marijuana fund, real estate

Some analysts said that this year's cryptocurrency field is the best embodiment of "when the tide fades, we will know who is swimming naked." Digital money is not only affected by high interest rates and collective risk aversion by investors during the economic downturn, but also by bankruptcy and fraud scandals of large players in the industry.

Listed companies such as Coinbase, the cryptocurrency exchange, and Marathon Digital, the "ring miner", have tumbled more than 85 per cent, while cryptocurrency-related funds from Osprey, Grayscale, VanEck, Global X, Bitwise, First Trust, Invesco and many other institutional investment companies have also tumbled more than 70 per cent this year.

Funds betting on marijuana stocks have also exploded this year, and fierce competition in the industry has made it difficult for marijuana companies to generate profits.

At the same time, European and American real estate markets are showing signs of decline in a high interest rate environment, with interest rate-sensitive real estate stocks under pressure and the European real estate sector is on track for its biggest annual decline since 2008. The analysis points out that with the collapse in real estate values and further rise in mortgage loan costs, the worst may not yet come for the European and American housing markets, which have been inflated by low-interest credit over the past years.

The crisis in the cost of living caused by soaring energy prices and high inflation is hitting the retail sector. Retail stocks in the pan-European Stoxx 600 index were the second worst performer of the year, falling 30 per cent, consumer spending eroded by high inflation and soaring prices of corporate input costs, which are unlikely to subside anytime soon. European and American clothing retailers have been hit hard.

James Rutherford, head of European equities at Federated Hermes Limited, said that with the end of the zero interest rate environment, the heyday of speculative investment in the past was almost clear, and people were finally starting to take a serious look at the core fundamentals of the company and its future prospects. He believes that stock selection in the coming year will be crucial and predicts that the market will become more picky in terms of corporate fundamentals and profitability.