Event
Yunda Co., Ltd. releases third quarter report 2022
Yunda shares announced that in the first three quarters of 2022, the company's operating income was 10.622 billion yuan, an increase of 19.40 percent over the same period last year. The net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 460 million yuan, an increase of 29.56 percent over the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-recurrent profits and losses was about 422 million yuan, an increase of 21.19 percent over the same period last year.
Among them, the company's quarterly operating income in the third quarter was 3.846 billion yuan, an increase of 1.28% over the same period last year, and the third-quarter net profit was 165 million yuan, an increase of 8.53% over the same period last year.
Brief comment
The sales price of wind turbine has declined, and the gross profit margin has increased compared with the same period last year.
The company shipped about 1.6GW fans in the third quarter of 2022, and the sales price of fans in the third quarter was about 2300 yuan / KW (excluding tax), which was lower than that of 2500 yuan / KW in the first half of the year. However, in terms of profitability, the gross profit margin is relatively stable. The company's overall gross profit margin in the third quarter was 16.81%, an increase of 9.98% over the same period last year, and a slight decrease of 2.85% from the previous month, which remained at a good level.
Orders continue to grow, laying the foundation for shipments next year and the year after next
In the first three quarters of 2022, the company added new orders for 6602MW, including new 2617MW in the third quarter, an increase of 24.71% compared with the second quarter, and maintained a good momentum of development. As of September 30, 2022, the company has accumulated orders-on-hand 15.02GW, which is about three times the delivery volume in 2021. Among them, 2MW-3MW (excluding 3MW) wind turbines 445MW, 3MW-4MW (excluding 4MW) wind turbines 2725.5MW, 4MW-5MW (excluding 5MW) wind turbines 2640.4MW 5MW muri 6MW (excluding 6MW) wind turbines 4878.46MW and above 4327.4MW. Among them, the proportion of 4MW and above models continues to increase, accounting for 78.89% of the company's overall orders, and the order structure is good.
Breakthroughs in sea breeze orders and active development of new energy sources
In August this year, the company won the bid for the Xiangshan # 1 offshore wind power project of the National Energy Group, marking a breakthrough in Yunda's domestic sea breeze project. In the future, the company will also rely on the resources of Zhejiang Province, as well as development in Shandong, Liaoning and other places to obtain more sea breeze orders. For the new energy operation project, the company obtained the index 1.48GW in the first half of the year, and now it is estimated that it will reserve the 3GW project, and 300MW is expected to be completed this year. The index on hand lays the foundation for the growth of power plant investment business in the next few years and becomes a new growth point of the company.
Maintain the "overweight" rating
This year, due to the impact of the epidemic and the supply chain, we expect the domestic wind power installation level of 50-55GW for the whole year. Due to the rapid growth of on-hand orders, shipments are expected to reach 6.5GW, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. As the bidding volume of fans for the whole year will reach 90-100GW, the company is expected to add new 10GW orders for the whole year, and the sales of fans in 2023 will reach the level of 8GW or above.
We estimate that from 2022 to 2024, the company will achieve revenue of 16.75 billion yuan, net profit of 655 million yuan, net profit of 816 million yuan, and EPS of 1.21 yuan, respectively. The current stock price will be 1.76 times that of 17-14-12 in 2022-2023, maintaining the company's "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: 1, a sharp decline in wind power demand; 2, a sharp decline in mainframe prices; 3, a substantial increase in product costs.