The Serial System Ltd (SGX:S69) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 26%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 39% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Serial System's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.7x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Singapore, where the median P/E ratio is around 10x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

For instance, Serial System's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Serial System

SGX:S69 Price Based on Past Earnings October 19th 2022 Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Serial System will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Serial System would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 47% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 65% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 3.8% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Serial System's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

With its share price falling into a hole, the P/E for Serial System looks quite average now. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Serial System revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 6 warning signs with Serial System (at least 2 which don't sit too well with us), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Serial System, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.