Is the Energy Trade Over?
Is the Energy Trade Over?
InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
InvestorPlace-股票市場新聞、股票建議和交易提示
When a stock or a sector has a strong run, investors inevitably ask: Am I too late?
當一隻股票或一個板塊強勁上漲時，投資者不可避免地會問：我來晚了嗎？
Energy stocks – especially old-school oil and natural gas stocks – have definitely enjoyed a strong run. The S&P Energy sector is up 40% so far this year, while the S&P 500 itself is down 11%.
能源類股--尤其是老派的石油和天然氣類股--無疑表現強勁。標普能源板塊向上今年到目前為止，40%，而標準普爾500指數本身降下來 11%.
The biggest three companies have been among the best performers, with Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) averaging 62% gains in 2022.
最大的三家公司一直是表現最好的公司之一，埃克森美孚公司(紐約證券交易所代碼：XOM)，雪佛龍公司(紐約證券交易所代碼：CVX)，以及康菲石油(紐約證券交易所代碼：COP)2022年平均漲幅為62%。
Energy has been the place to make money in 2022, and we've done very well there.
能源一直是這個2022年是賺錢的地方，我們在那裏做得非常好。
But oil prices are now off their peak. Gas prices average less than $4 a gallon for the first time since March (which is good news for inflation). And you can see in the chart above that oil stocks are also off their highs.
但油價現在已經脱離了峯值。汽油平均價格自3月份以來首次低於每加侖4美元(這對通脹來説是個好消息)。你可以在上面的圖表中看到，石油庫存也脱離了高點。
So, is the energy trade over? Have these stocks had their day in the sun?
那麼，能源交易結束了嗎？這些股票在陽光下度過了一天嗎？
Not in my mind.
在我的腦海裏沒有。
If you're looking to invest in companies with strong earnings and sales, you should keep energy stocks on your radar…
如果你希望投資於收益和銷售強勁的公司，你應該保持對能源類股的關注，…
Strong Fundamentals and Strong Momentum
基本面強、勢頭強
The truth is that crude oil prices will probably moderate even more in the upcoming months due to seasonality.
事實是，由於季節性因素，原油價格在未來幾個月可能會進一步回落。
Every year, demand ebbs as we head into the nicer weather of fall, and energy prices dip as a result. I wouldn't be surprised to see oil decline to about $85 per barrel in September and October.
每年，隨着我們進入更好的秋季天氣，需求都會下降，能源價格也會隨之下跌。如果油價在9月和10月跌至每桶85美元左右，我不會感到驚訝。
But here's the key: Even with oil at $85, many energy companies will remain profitable.
但關鍵是：即使油價為85美元，許多能源公司仍將保持盈利。
And then there is natural gas. Prices will likely remain persistently high given that Russia continues to play games in Europe. Russia has already stopped supplying gas to France, Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, and the Netherlands, and it reduced supplies to Germany and Italy. European Union (EU) members have been advised to cut natural gas consumption "immediately," as the EU runs the risk of running out of natural gas to heat homes this winter.
然後是天然氣。鑑於俄羅斯繼續在歐洲玩遊戲，價格可能會持續居高不下。俄羅斯已經停止向法國、波蘭、保加利亞、芬蘭、丹麥和荷蘭供應天然氣，並減少了對德國和意大利的供應。歐盟(EU)成員國被建議“立即”削減天然氣消費量，因為歐盟面臨着今冬家庭取暖所需天然氣耗盡的風險。
With all those supply disruptions, natural gas prices should remain much higher than normal for the foreseeable future.
在所有這些供應中斷的情況下，在可預見的未來，天然氣價格應該會遠遠高於正常水平。
Add it all up and we can expect crude oil, natural gas, and other energy-related companies to continue achieving stunning earnings and sales results. We've already seen energy companies produce record results in the most recent quarter – and most have guided higher for the second half of the year.
綜上所述，我們可以預期，原油、天然氣和其他能源相關公司將繼續取得令人震驚的收益和銷售業績。我們已經看到能源公司在最近一個季度創造了創紀錄的業績--而且大多數公司在今年下半年都走高了。
In fact, FactSet recently reported that analysts continue to increase their earnings estimates for the energy sector. The sector is now anticipated to report average earnings growth of a whopping 265.3% in the second quarter, up from previous estimates for 255.4%. The energy sector is also anticipated to report average second-quarter sales growth of 55.9%.
事實上，FactSet最近報告稱，分析師繼續上調對能源行業的收益預期。預計該行業第二季度的平均收益增幅將高達265.3%，高於此前預計的255.4%。能源行業預計也將公佈第二季度銷售額平均增長55.9%。
For these reasons, many energy stocks earn a high Fundamental Grade in my proprietary Portfolio Grader stock analysis system. This grade factors earnings and sales growth, analysts' estimates, margins, cash flow, and more. All are important to a stock's performance.
由於這些原因，許多能源類股賺得很高。基本職系在我專有的投資組合分級股票分析系統中。這一級別的因素包括盈利和銷售增長、分析師的估計、利潤率、現金流等。所有這些對一隻股票的表現都很重要。
Many energy stocks earn an even higher Quantitative Grade right now. I call this grade my "secret sauce." It is my proprietary measure of institutional buying pressure. In other words, it tracks where the "smart money" is flowing. The more attractive a stock is to institutional investors, the better the stock will perform in the near term.
許多能源類股的收益甚至更高量化等級現在就來。我把這個分數叫做我的“祕方”。這是我衡量機構買入壓力的專有指標。換句話説，它追蹤“聰明的錢”流向哪裏。一隻股票對機構投資者的吸引力越大，該股在短期內的表現就越好。
As an example, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Conoco Phillips all earn an "A" Quantitative Grades right now:
例如，埃克森美孚、雪佛龍和康菲石油現在都獲得了A級的量化分數：
I recommend one of those three in my Growth Investor service, in addition to other energy stocks. I go where the growth is, and we can find it in energy.
除了其他能源類股外，我還在我的Growth Investor服務中推薦這三隻股票中的一隻。我去哪裏有增長，我們就能在能源領域找到它。
And when you add up everything we've talked about today, it should come as no surprise that I continue researching new energy opportunities to add to our Buy Lists. You might want to consider doing the same as we look ahead to a strong finish to the year.
當你把我們今天談到的一切加在一起時，我繼續研究新能源的機會來添加到我們的購買清單中，這也就不足為奇了。你可能會考慮做同樣的事情，因為我們預計今年會有一個強勁的結束。
Sincerely,
真誠地
Louis Navellier, Market 360
路易斯·納維利耶市場360
The Editor hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below:
編輯特此披露，截至本電子郵件之日，編輯直接或間接擁有以下證券，這些證券是以下文章中評論、分析、意見、建議或建議的主題，或以其他方式在以下文章中提及：
ConocoPhillips (COP)
康菲石油(扶貧委員會)
The post Is the Energy Trade Over? appeared first on InvestorPlace.
這篇文章的能源交易結束了嗎？最先出現在InvestorPlace上。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。