On the evening of the 12th Beijing time, US stocks opened higher on Friday. Global stock markets rebounded. This week's CPI and PPI inflation data both suggest that US inflation is likely to peak, and the S & P 500 is on track to record its fourth straight week of gains. Given signs of cooling inflation, investors are concerned about whether the Fed will reverse its aggressive interest rate hike.
As of press time, the Dow is up 0.47%, the Nasdaq is up 0.66%, and the S & P is up 0.57%.
So far this week, the s & p has risen 1.5 per cent, mainly due to a lower-than-expected rise in the consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday. The index is likely to record a fourth consecutive week of gains, the longest consecutive week since November 2021.
The Labor Department's producer price index (PPI) released on Thursday further confirmed speculation that the US inflation trend may be turning lower, prompting the Fed to eventually slow its aggressive rate hike.
Matthias Scheiber, global head of portfolio management at Allspring multi-asset solutions, said: "inflation in the US seems to be improving, which is positive, and growth stocks are outperforming again. I wouldn't be surprised if US stocks have a good ending this week. " But he said investors remained cautious.
BofA analysts say investors are returning to the stock and bond markets, with data from the bank showing that global equity funds attracted $7.1 billion in the week ended Aug. 10. Over the same period, inflows into the US stock market reached $11 billion, an eight-week high.
The Dow is up 1.6% so far this week, while the Nasdaq is up 1% over the same period. For the Nasdaq, the index is also likely to record its fourth consecutive week of gains.
"the fundamental news on the stock market is still bullish, the economy is entering a period of cooling inflation, and corporate earnings and earnings growth are better than expected," said Adam Crisafulli, an analyst at Vital Knowledge.
This week, U. S. stocks continued the market's rebound from its mid-June lows. From its recent low in mid-June, the s & p 500 is up 14.7%, the Dow is up 11.5%, and the Nasdaq is up 20.0%.
At the same time, global stock markets are about to record a fourth straight week of gains. The market lowered its expectations for US inflation and interest rate hikes.
But crude oil prices have risen this week, complicating the inflation outlook. Brent crude prices are expected to rise more than 3 per cent this week as fears of a recession ease, partially recovering last week's 14 per cent decline.
Crude oil prices rose this week, causing the commodity index to rebound more than 10 per cent from its July low. Analysts worry that if this trend continues, the global inflation situation will become more severe.
A slight decline in US inflation data pushed global stock markets higher and curbed the dollar's rally this week. But comments by several Fed spokesmen dispelled expectations that the Fed would slow further policy tightening.
San Francisco Fed President Daley said Thursday that inflation in the United States is still too high and that she expects more restrictive monetary policy in 2023.
Chicago Fed President Evans said he believes the Fed may need to raise its policy rate to 3.25% Mel 3.5% this year and 3.75% Mel 4% by the end of next year, in line with the signal sent by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the Fed meeting in July.
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he insisted that the Fed should raise its policy rate to 3.9% by the end of the year and 4.4% by the end of 2023.
Economists at Commerzbank said: "the macroeconomic environment may begin to improve slightly, and the possibility of a peak in US CPI raises doubts about the need for further substantial interest rate increases in the coming months. But US inflation is still high and the Fed still needs to raise interest rates, but the situation is not as bad as many people feared. "
Earlier this week, the market predicted that the probability of a 75 basis point rise in us interest rates in September was as high as 68 per cent, but now it is only about 34 per cent, the same as a week ago.
On Friday, the US import price index fell 1.4% month-on-month in July, the lowest level since April 2020. The market is expected to shrink by 1.00%, compared with an increase of 0.20%.
The University of Michigan Consumer Price Index will be released at 10:00 EDT on Friday. The market will pay close attention to the inflationary factors reflected in it.
Focus attention
Most star technology stocks are up.Alphabet Inc-CL C and Nai soared by more than 1%, while stocks such as Tesla, Inc. and Apple Inc rose slightly.
The semiconductor sector led the gains.Advanced Micro Devices Inc rose by more than 2%, NVIDIA Corp by nearly 2% and Micron Technology Inc by more than 1%.
American electric car manufacturer$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) $The company rose 0.27 percent to $39.055 as revenue beat expectations last quarter, but lowered its full-year guidance.
$Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR.US) $Up more than 3%, the company announced plans to sell potash mining rights in Amazon.Com Inc basin.
Gene sequencing Corp.$Illumina Inc (ILMN.US) $It fell more than 8%, and the company posted a net loss of $535 million in the second quarter, turning from profit to loss compared with the same period last year.
Chinese stocks fell collectively.China Life Insurance Company Limited fell nearly 4%, Aluminum Corporation Of China Ltd fell nearly 3%, Petrochina Company Limited and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp fell more than 3%. The above-mentioned companies said they planned to delist depositary shares from the US stock market.
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