Event
The company has issued the outline of the 14th five-year Plan and strives to manage all kinds of new energy projects with an installed capacity of 7.55 million kilowatts by the end of the 14th five-year Plan (including projects that have been put into production, under construction and carry out preliminary work, as well as controlling shareholders to invest in advance, entrust the company to manage all kinds of new energy projects).
Focus on sea breeze and photovoltaic, installation during the 14th five-year Plan period is expected to be high growth. During the 14th five-year Plan period, the company will focus on developing sea breeze and photovoltaic in the province, while actively developing projects outside the province, focusing on the project resources of the sending provinces with UHV transmission channels to Jiangsu. Considering that the 7.55 million kilowatt plan includes projects under construction, preliminary projects and controlling shareholder projects, we expect the company's controlling installed capacity to reach about 5 million kilowatts by the end of 2025. At the end of 2021, the company has a holding installed capacity of 1.55 million kilowatts, so there is much room for growth in 22-25 years.
In 2022, the consortium led by the controlling shareholder of the company won the bid for Dafeng 850000 kilowatt offshore wind power project, and the controlling shareholder promised to give priority to inject into the company when the conditions were met. In June 2022, the feasibility report of the project has passed the technical review; in terms of photovoltaic, Lianyungang Xinba 200MW agricultural photovoltaic project, Shanxi Shuozhou Pinglu 70MW photovoltaic project, Taizhou Jiangyan, Jingjiang, Zhenjiang Runzhou roof distributed photovoltaic project and so on.
New energy sources above 30GW will be added in Jiangsu Province during the 14th five-year Plan. As the leader of new energy operation in the province, the company will fully benefit.
According to the "Circular on doing a good job in the Construction of Wind and Photovoltaic projects in 2021" and other documents issued by the Jiangsu Provincial Development and Reform Commission last year, Jiangsu will focus on developing offshore wind and photovoltaic power generation during the 14th five-year Plan period, and strive to achieve a total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic above 63GW in 2025.
Based on this, it is estimated that Jiangsu wind power and photovoltaic will be installed more than 30GW during the 14th five-year Plan period.
As the leader of new energy operation in Jiangsu Province and backed by Jiangsu Guoxin Group, the company has significant advantages in project resources and development experience, and is expected to fully benefit from the high growth of new energy in Jiangsu Province during the 14th five-year Plan.
Valuation analysis and rating description
Considering that 40% of Rudong 350MW offshore wind power project and Binhai 300MW offshore wind power project will start to contribute income in 2022, and the basic impairment of biomass project has been completed, the growth rate of net profit is high in 2022.
According to the company's 14th five-year Development Plan, it is estimated that by the end of 2022-2025, the company's holding sea breeze installed capacity will be 35max 65max 105155 million kilowatts, and the holding photovoltaic installed capacity will be 60max 110max 170 / 2.4 million kW, while land wind and biomass installation will maintain the current scale.
It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 788 million yuan, 891 million yuan and 1.167 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 16.7,14.9,11.3 times of PE, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk hint
The installed scale of wind power photovoltaic is lower than expected; the rebate rate of renewable energy subsidies is lower than expected; the price of grid electricity is reduced; the cost of new projects is rising.