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Is Sinofert Holdings (HKG:297) A Risky Investment?

Is Sinofert Holdings (HKG:297) A Risky Investment?

中化肥控股(HKG: 297)是風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  2022/05/06 08:58

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Sinofert Holdings Limited (HKG:297) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

傳奇基金經理李露(查理·芒格支持他)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”因此,當你評估公司的風險時,聰明的人似乎知道債務(通常與破產有關)是一個非常重要的因素。我們可以看出來 中化肥控股有限公司 (HKG: 297) 確實在其業務中使用了債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來甚麼風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無法還清貸方,那麼債務就任其擺佈。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能一無所有地離開。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股權資本,從而永久稀釋股東。但是,通過取代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業的一個非常好的工具。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將其現金和債務放在一起考慮。

Check out our latest analysis for Sinofert Holdings

查看我們對中化肥控股的最新分析

How Much Debt Does Sinofert Holdings Carry?

中化肥控股負有多少債務?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Sinofert Holdings had debt of CN¥1.04b at the end of December 2021, a reduction from CN¥1.71b over a year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥1.32b in cash, leading to a CN¥275.4m net cash position.

您可以點擊下圖瞭解更多詳情,該圖片顯示,截至2021年12月底,中化肥控股的債務爲10.4億元人民幣,比一年內的17.1億元人民幣有所減少。但另一方面,它也有13.2億元人民幣的現金,淨現金狀況達到2.754億元人民幣。

SEHK:297 Debt to Equity History May 6th 2022
香港交易所:297 債轉股歷史記錄 2022 年 5 月 6 日

How Healthy Is Sinofert Holdings' Balance Sheet?

中化控股的資產負債表有多健康?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Sinofert Holdings had liabilities of CN¥7.16b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥1.35b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.32b as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.56b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥5.64b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

根據最近公佈的資產負債表,Sinofert Holdings在12個月內到期的負債爲71.6億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲13.5億元人民幣。抵消了這些債務,它有13.2億元的現金以及在12個月內到期的價值15.6億元人民幣的應收賬款。因此,其負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出564億元人民幣。

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥7.98b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Sinofert Holdings also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.

相對於其79.8億元人民幣的市值,這是一大筆槓桿率。這表明,如果公司需要迅速鞏固資產負債表,股東將被大幅稀釋。儘管它確實有值得注意的負債,但Sinofert Holdings的現金也多於債務,因此我們非常有信心它能夠安全地管理債務。

Also good is that Sinofert Holdings grew its EBIT at 17% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Sinofert Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

同樣好的是,Sinofert Holdings的息稅前利潤比去年增長了17%,進一步提高了其管理債務的能力。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,未來的收益比甚麼都重要,將決定Sinofert Holdings未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你專注於未來,你可以看看這個 免費的 顯示分析師盈利預測的報告。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. Sinofert Holdings may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. During the last three years, Sinofert Holdings produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 59% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法削減債務。Sinofert Holdings的資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但看看該企業如何將其息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和管理能力。在過去三年中,Sinofert Holdings產生了強勁的自由現金流,相當於其息稅前利潤的59%,與我們的預期差不多。這種自由現金流使公司處於在適當時償還債務的有利地位。

Summing up

總結

While Sinofert Holdings does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of CN¥275.4m. And we liked the look of last year's 17% year-on-year EBIT growth. So we are not troubled with Sinofert Holdings's debt use. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Sinofert Holdings .

儘管Sinofert Holdings的負債確實超過了流動資產,但其淨現金也爲2.754億元人民幣。而且我們喜歡去年息稅前利潤同比增長17%的樣子。因此,我們對Sinofert Holdings的債務使用並不感到困擾。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。爲此,您應該注意我們在Sinofert Holdings上發現的兩個警告信號。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果你是那種喜歡在沒有債務負擔的情況下購買股票的投資者,那麼請立即查看我們的獨家淨現金增長股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。 我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。 它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街在上述任何股票中都沒有頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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