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川金诺(300505):业绩符合预期 看好重钙出口弹性

Chuanjinuo (300505): the performance meets expectations and is optimistic about the export elasticity of heavy calcium.

東北證券 ·  Apr 29, 2022 00:00  · Researches

The company released its quarterly report for 2022, with an operating income of 443 million yuan, an increase of 86.16% over the same period last year, a net profit of 60 million yuan, an increase of 1192.74%, and a non-return net profit of 59 million yuan, an increase of 1170.05% over the same period last year. The gross profit margin of sales is 20.73% and the net profit is 13.71%.

The rise in product prices supports the high performance and is optimistic about the boom. The demand for phosphate fertilizer drives the price of the company's products to rise, superimposing the cost of raw materials, and the prices of the company's main products are in the rising channel. According to Baichuan Information, the average domestic 2022Q1 prices of the company's main products heavy calcium, calcium hydrogen phosphate and purified phosphoric acid are 2700, 2969 and 9687 yuan / ton respectively, up 50%, 83% and 100% respectively over the same period last year. In addition, the company's heavy calcium is mainly used for export. The average price of FOB in bulk in China in the first quarter was 702 US dollars / ton, up 82% from the same period last year. At present, the export price of heavy calcium is still rising further compared with the first quarter, and the domestic feed-grade calcium phosphate and wet-process phosphoric acid are also rising steadily. With the spring ploughing coming to an end in the second quarter, the export inspection policy is expected to be relaxed, and the company's heavy calcium exports are expected to achieve a month-on-month increase in volume and price. in addition, the company raises investment projects such as wet-process phosphoric acid purification and fine phosphate project production capacity climbing, we are optimistic about the company's second-quarter results.

Iron phosphate / lithium iron phosphate accelerates industrial transformation. In 2021, the company completed the capital construction of 5000 tons of iron phosphate production plant and produced some products, and 2022 is the production capacity climbing stage. In addition, the 150000 tons of iron phosphate project in Fangchenggang, Guangxi is expected to be put into production by the end of 2023, of which 50,000 tons have been approved by EIA and are expected to be put into production by the end of this year. The upstream of the company's iron phosphate project is equipped with 600000 tons of sulphuric acid from sulfur and wet-process phosphoric acid from the 100000-ton project now put into production, and the downstream extension of 100000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials. At present, the national planning of iron phosphate production capacity is more, the company in the field of new energy materials industry chain layout, will significantly enhance competitiveness at the cost end.

Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating. As the leader of heavy calcium subdivision, the company will fully benefit from the global phosphate fertilizer boom, and the extension of the new energy field will also create new profit elasticity. For the first time, the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 29.96,38.66 and 4.73 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning to the mother is 5.98,7.39 and 904 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 8X/7X/6X corresponding to PE, which is rated as "overholding". It is recommended that the company be given 12 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the first target market capitalization of 7.2 billion.

Risk Tip: product prices fall, exports fall short of expectations

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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