Report guide
The company released the 2021 annual report: 21A achieved a total operating income of 1.12 billion yuan (+ 44.55%) and a net profit of 145 million yuan (+ 30.18%); 21Q4 achieved a total operating income of 327 million yuan (+ 28.62%) and a net profit of 29 million yuan (- 20.51%). Q4 is slightly under pressure due to the high cost of raw materials & sea freight, year-end promotion and other factors.
Main points of investment
The income of the main business is beautiful and cashable, and multiple factors drag down the profit margin. (1) Industrial paper bags: 21A income 752 million yuan (+ 29.14%), gross profit margin 26.80% (excluding freight-2.62pct), gross profit margin decline is mainly due to the Kraft paper price of raw materials during the period & high sea freight price and change of accounting standards. During the period, the sales volume of industrial paper bags was 262 million (+ 38.33%) and the unit price was 2.88 yuan (- 6.64%). After the release of production capacity, the beautiful sales and the decline in unit price were mainly due to changes in customer structure. The volume of building materials customers with relatively low unit prices increased significantly by 65.67% to 263 million yuan (gross profit margin of building materials customers 34.24%, year-on-year-2.65pct). (2) Composite plastic packaging: 21A has an income of 277 million yuan (+ 93.22%) and a gross profit margin of 37.20% (- 7.19pct). The decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to strategic price adjustment, year-end promotion and the influence of raw materials; sales volume of 7536 million Yanmi (+ 129.29%) during the period, corresponding to a unit price of 3.68 yuan / Yanmi (- 15.73%), mainly due to the price adjustment of major customers' orders. During the year, the income of major cheese customers was 237 million yuan (21.19%, compared with the same period last year, + 67.75%), and the cooperation was stable. (3) others: 71 million yuan (+ 111.36%) from injection packaging and other business during the period, and 19 million yuan (+ 31.47%) from intelligent packaging system.
During the epidemic, the factory operated smoothly and the cheese customers developed smoothly.
(1) production and delivery are smooth during the epidemic period: after the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai in March, the company's factory was managed in a closed-loop manner in time, and the production, feeding and delivery were running smoothly during the epidemic. It is considered that during the epidemic, logistics costs and factory-worker costs are high, which may affect profit margins. (2) Cheese customer development is smooth: in the first quarter, the company successfully opened up Dr. Cheese and other new customers, and the customer structure continued to be optimized; in addition, at the end of 22Q1 packaging material promotion activities, packaging material profit will pick up month-on-month, considering the gradual release of scale effect, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of composite plastic packaging volume. (3) the downstream of the industrial paper bag is prosperous, and the orders are more full, so we look forward to the profit elasticity after the reduction of the cost of raw materials.
Raw materials are suppressed and profitability has fallen.
Profitability: considering the change of accounting standards, according to the calculation of gross sales difference, 21A gross sales difference is 26.68% (- 2.39pct), which is mainly due to the large increase in Kraft paper prices of raw materials of industrial paper bags (nearly 70% of income) and the strategic profit concession of composite plastic packaging during the period; the gross sales difference of 21Q4 is 23.75% (- 6.30pct), which is mainly due to year-end promotion of composite plastic packaging. In terms of expense rate, 21A management and R & D expense rate is 10.45% (- 0.52pct), and financial expense rate is 1.31% (- 0.47%). Corresponding to 21A net interest rate 12.92% (- 1.43pct), 21Q4 net interest rate 8.88% (- 5.49pct). Cash flow: 21A operating cash flow of 22 million yuan (- 87 million yuan) and 21Q4 operating cash flow of-39 million yuan (- 68 million yuan), mainly due to the increase in sales settled by bills and the increase in raw material stock.
Capacity expansion contributes to growth momentum, and profits are expected to bottom out and pick up.
In terms of industrial paper bags, the design capacity at the end of 22 years is expected to be + 15 million 20% compared with the same period last year. Considering the high level of the downstream economy and the scarcity of domestic production capacity, we are optimistic about the future growth of the business; in addition, the pulp supply is released in the medium term. Kraft paper prices are expected to fall back, looking forward to the profit elasticity after the fall of raw materials. In terms of composite plastic packaging, after the new production capacity was put into production at the end of 21 years, the total production capacity has doubled compared with that at the end of 20 years, and the volume is expected to expand smoothly in 22 years, taking into account the smooth development of new customers, steady cooperation with old customers and the release of scale effects. continue to be optimistic about the rapid growth of the scale of composite plastic packaging business.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a packaging giant, industrial paper bag production capacity is scarce, cheese bar business high-speed volume, we expect the company to achieve revenue of 13.63 / 18.15 / 2.313 billion yuan in 22-24, an increase of 21.64% / 33.18% / 27.48% The net profit of homing is 1.80 / 2.16 / 264 million yuan, with an increase of 24.43% / 19.78% / 22.25%, corresponding to PE of 23.62X/ 19.72X/ 16.13X, maintaining the buy rating.