U.S. natgas futures slide to 3-week low on jump in output
U.S. natgas futures slide to 3-week low on jump in output
That drop in gas prices this week and a recent jump in oil futures CLc1 to its highest since 2014 boosted the premium of oil over gas to its highest since April 2021. Over the last several years, that premium has prompted U.S. energy firms to focus most of their drilling activity on finding more oil instead of gas because crude was by far the more valuable commodity.Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped over 1% to a fresh three-week low on Friday as output starts to recover quickly from last week's freezing weather and on forecasts confirming the weather will remain warmer than normal for the next two weeks.
路透2月11日電-美國天然氣期貨週五下滑逾1%，至三週新低，因產量開始從上週的冰凍天氣中快速復甦，且天氣預報證實未來兩週天氣仍將較正常温暖.
After weeks of near record volatility, front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery fell 6.1 cents, or 1.5%, to $3.898 per million British thermal units at 11:03 a.m. EST (1603 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since Jan. 20 for a second day in a row.
在經歷了幾周接近創紀錄的波動之後，截至上午11點03分，3月份交割的近月天然氣期貨NGC1下跌6.1美分，至每百萬英熱單位3.898美元，跌幅1.5%。美國東部時間(格林尼治標準時間1603)，該合約有望連續第二天創下1月20日以來的最低收盤點位。
For the week, the contract down about 15%, which would be its biggest one-week decline since December.
本週，該合約下跌約15%，這將是自去年12月以來的最大單週跌幅。
That drop in gas prices this week and a recent jump in oil futures CLc1 to its highest since 2014 boosted the premium of oil over gas to its highest since April 2021. Over the last several years, that premium has prompted U.S. energy firms to focus most of their drilling activity on finding more oil instead of gas because crude was by far the more valuable commodity.
本週天然氣價格的下跌，以及最近石油期貨CLc1躍升至2014年以來的最高水平，將石油相對於天然氣的溢價推高至2021年4月以來的最高水平。在過去的幾年裏，這種溢價促使美國能源公司將大部分鑽探活動的重點放在尋找更多的石油而不是天然氣上，因為到目前為止，原油是更有價值的大宗商品。
The oil-to-gas ratio, or level at which oil trades compared with gas, jumped to 23-to-1 on Friday. So far in 2022, crude has traded about 20 times over gas. That compares with crude's average premium over gas of 19 times in 2021 and a five-year average (2017-2021) of 20 times. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should trade only six times over gas.
上週五，石油與天然氣的比率，即石油與天然氣的交易水平，躍升至23比1。2022年到目前為止，原油的交易價格大約是天然氣的20倍。相比之下，2021年原油相對於天然氣的平均溢價為19倍，五年(2017-2021年)平均溢價為20倍。在能源當量的基礎上，石油的交易應該只是天然氣的6倍。
Data provider Refinitiv said average output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 93.9 bcfd in January and 91.6 bcfd in February as wells in several producing regions froze, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and the Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio.
數據提供商Refinitiv表示，由於德克薩斯州和新墨西哥州的二疊紀、北達科他州的巴肯以及賓夕法尼亞州、西弗吉尼亞州和俄亥俄州的阿巴拉契亞地區的油井凍結，美國較低48個州的平均日產量從去年12月的973億立方英尺/天(Bcfd)降至1月份的93.9立方英尺/天和2月份的91.6立方英尺/天。
On a daily basis, however, output soared to 95.0 bcfd on Thursday, its highest since Jan. 1, according to Refinitiv. Output has been rising almost daily since it dropped to 86.3 bcfd during a winter storm on Feb. 4, its lowest since February 2021.
然而，根據Refinitiv的數據，週四的日產量飆升至95.0 bcfd，為1月1日以來的最高水平。自2月4日在一場冬季風暴中跌至86.3 bcfd以來，產量幾乎每天都在上升，這是自2021年2月以來的最低水平。
With cold weather moderating, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 129.5 bcfd this week to 120.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.
隨着寒冷天氣的緩解，Refinitiv預計，包括出口在內的美國天然氣平均需求將從本週的129.5 bcfd降至下週的120.6 bcfd。這些預測低於Refinitiv週四的展望。
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to an average of 12.5 bcfd so far in February, which would top January's monthly record of 12.4 bcfd, as liquefaction trains at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana enter service.
隨着Venture Global LNG位於路易斯安那州的Calcasieu Pass工廠的液化列車投入使用，2月迄今流向美國液化天然氣(LNG)出口工廠的天然氣總量平均升至12.5bcfd，將超過1月份創下的12.4bcfd的月度紀錄。
Venture Global got approval from federal regulators on Friday to load the first LNG vessel. A tanker arrived at Calcasieu on Monday and likely will take the plant's first LNG cargo in coming days.
Venture Global上週五獲得聯邦監管機構的批准，可以裝載第一艘液化天然氣船。週一，一艘油輪抵達Calcasieu，可能會在未來幾天運送工廠的第一批液化天然氣貨物。
Traders said demand for U.S. LNG would remain strong so long as global gas TRNLTTFMc1 JKMc1 prices keep trading well above U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet surging demand in Asia and replenish low inventories in Europe - especially with the threat that Russia could invade Ukraine and cut gas supplies to Europe. NG/GB
交易員們表示，只要全球天然氣TRNLTTFMc1 JKMc1的價格保持在遠高於美國期貨的水平，對美國液化天然氣的需求就會保持強勁，因為世界各地的公用事業公司都在爭先恐後地搶購貨物，以滿足亞洲激增的需求，並補充歐洲的低庫存-特別是在俄羅斯可能入侵烏克蘭並切斷對歐洲天然氣供應的威脅下。NG/GB
Russia provides 30%-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 bcfd in 2021, according to analysts and U.S. energy data.
根據分析師和美國能源數據，俄羅斯提供了歐洲天然氣供應的30%-40%，2021年總計約為16.3bcfd。
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
截至一年前的一週-五年前
Feb. Feb. 4 Feb. 11 average
2月4日2月11日平均
11(Forecast) (Actual) Feb. 11
11日(預測)(實際)2月11日
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -202 -222 -227 -154
美國每週天然氣儲存變化(Bcf)：-202-222-227-154
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,899 2,101 2,315 2,162
美國天然氣儲存總量(Bcf)：1,899 2,101 2,315,162
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -12.2% -9.3%
美國總存儲容量與5年平均水平相比-12.2%-9.3%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
全球天然氣基準期貨(美元/mmBtu)本月前一天五年前一天
Last Year Average Average
去年平均水平
2021 (2017-2021)
2021 (2017-2021)
Henry Hub NGc1 3.96 3.96 2.92 3.73 2.89
Henry Hub NGC1 3.96 3.96 2.92 3.73 2.89
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 24.89 24.61 6.14 16.04 7.49
所有權轉讓機制(TTF)TRNLTTFMc1 24.89 24.61 6.14 16.04 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 24.80 24.72 7.36 18.00 8.95
日韓記分員(JKM)JKMc1 24.80 24.72 7.36 18.00 8.95
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
制熱(HDD)、冷卻(CDD)和總(TDD)度天數
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
兩週合計預測當日前一天前一年10年30年
Norm Norm
範數範數
U.S. GFS HDDs 366 363 556 403 390
美國GFS硬盤366 363 556 403 390
U.S. GFS CDDs 5 4 5 6 6
美國GFS CDDS 5 4 5 6 6
U.S. GFS TDDs 371 367 561 409 396
美國政府飛行服務隊TDDS 371 367 561 409 396
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Refinitiv美國每週GFS供需預測
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
前一週當前周下週本週五年期
Last Year Average For
去年平均每年
Month
月份
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
美國供應(Bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 93.1 91.3 93.7 87.8 83.3
美國較低48乾產量93.1 91.3 93.7 87.8 83.3
U.S. Imports from Canada 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 8.9
美國從加拿大進口9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 8.9
U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
美國液化天然氣進口量0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 102.5 100.7 103.1 97.1 92.4
美國總供應量102.5 100.7 103.1 97.192.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
美國需求(Bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.0 2.7
美國對加拿大出口2.4 2.4 2.7 2.0 2.7
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.4 5.5 6.0 4.8
美國對墨西哥出口5.8 5.4 5.5 6.0 4.8
U.S. LNG Exports 12.2 12.5 12.5 10.5 4.7
美國液化天然氣出口12.2 12.5 12.5 10.5 4.7
U.S. Commercial 19.4 17.9 16.4 20.5 15.6
美國商業銀行19.4 17.9 16.4 20.5 15.6
U.S. Residential 33.2 30.0 26.6 34.7 26.1
美國住宅33.2 30.0 26.6 34.7 26.1
U.S. Power Plant 28.6 28.2 24.2 30.3 26.3
美國發電廠28.6 28.2 24.2 30.3 26.3
U.S. Industrial 25.9 25.7 25.0 26.7 24.5
美國工業25.9 25.7 25.0 26.7 24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.6
美國植物燃料4.6 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.6
U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.1
美國管道分佈3.1 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
美國車用燃料0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 114.9 109.3 99.7 119.6 100.3
美國總消費量114.9 109.3 99.7 119.6 100.3
Total U.S. Demand 135.3 129.5 120.6 138.1 112.5
美國總需求135.3 129.5 120.6 138.1 112.5
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
美國每週發電量百分比(按燃料計算)-EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
截至一週截至一週
Feb 11 Feb 4 Jan 28 Jan 21 Jan 14
2月11日2月4日1月28日1月21日1月14日
Wind 12 11 9 11 10
風12 11 9 11 10
Solar 3 2 2 2 2
太陽3 2 2 2
Hydro 7 6 7 7 7
海德魯7 6 7 7 7
Other 2 2 2 2 2
其他2 2 2
Petroleum 1 1 1 1 1
石油1 1 1
Natural Gas 33 33 35 33 34
天然氣33 33 35 33 34
Coal 24 25 26 25 24
煤炭24 25 26 25 24
Nuclear 19 19 19 19 20
核能19 19 19 20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
SNL美國天然氣次日價格(每mmBtu$)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
中心當日前一天
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 4.03 4.13
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 4.03 4.13
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 4.46 4.05
Transco Z6紐約NG-CG-NY-SNL 4.46 4.05
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 4.39 4.45
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 4.39 4.45
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL 3.30 3.65
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL 3.30 3.65
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 3.63 4.76
芝加哥城門NG-CG-CH-SNL 3.63 4.76
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 3.93 7.22
阿爾岡昆城門NG-CG-BS-SNL 3.93 7.22
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.78 3.91
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.78 3.91
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 3.40 3.57
娃哈集線器NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 3.40 3.57
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 3.00 3.13
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 3.00 3.13
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
SNL美國次日電價(每兆瓦時$)
Hub Current Day
集線器當日
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 45.50 72.00
新英格蘭EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 45.50 72.00
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 22.25 27.25
PJM West El-PK-PJMW-SNL 22.25 27.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 25.25 35.25
ERCOT North El-PK-ERTN-SNL 25.25 35.25
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 29.25 36.50
MID C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 29.25 36.50
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 37.75 37.25
帕洛維德El-PK-PLVD-SNL 37.75 37.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 38.75 38.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 38.75 38.50
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
(Scott DiSavino報道；Andrea Ricci編輯)
((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS dropdown and the NORTH AMERICA dropdown or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters Eikon terminal. For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/ For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651 NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651 ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391 NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
(對於Refinitiv，請在Eikon搜索欄中鍵入Energy，然後轉到GAS下拉列表和北美下拉列表或參見：cpurl：//apps.cp./cms/？pageid=USA-gas for Interactive Map，請在Reuters Eikon終端左上角的框中鍵入‘Interactive Map’。有關Baker Hughes鑽機計數的圖表，請參閲：有關次日SNL美國天然氣價格，請參閲：0#SNL-NG瞭解次日SNL美國電價，請參閲：0#SNL-PWR瞭解美國天然氣價格和存儲民意調查，請參閲：NGAS/Poll for U.S.Nuclear Power Out，請參閲：Nuke/瞭解美國西北水電報告，請參閲：NWRFC有關美國/加拿大天然氣鑽機數量與Henry Hub期貨價格的信息，請參閲：有關美國天然氣速度指南，請參閲：USGAS以瞭解美國電力速度指南參見：USPOWER確定CFTC管理的貨幣淨頭寸加(NYMEX Henry Hub期權和期貨組合3023651MNET)加上(ICE Henry Hub期權和期貨組合3023391MNET除以4)加上(NYMEX Henry Hub掉期期權和期貨組合303565BMNET除以4)加上(NYMEX Henry Hub倒數第二個天然氣掉期303565CMNET除以4)NYMEX Henry Hub期權和期貨組合0#3CFTC0236
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
