We invited SANYI’s management to share with investors the latest development this week. Key positives: （1） Strong demand across all segments with backlog already covering the capacity over coming 5-6 months; （2） Gross margin expanded in each segment on the back of new products and stringent cost control; （3） Fast introduction of intelligent and electric products. We fine-tuned our earnings forecast in 2021E/22E by -4%/+2%. Our TP is slightly revised up to HK$14.6, based on unchanged 23x 2022E P/E. Going forward, we see potential for SANYI to expand into the new energy segment. Maintain BUY.
Road header. The monthly order intake reaches 70-80 sets at present, much higher than the 45-50 units early last year. The visibility has increased to 3 months, versus only 1-2 months in the past. Intelligent models, which carries 40-45% gross margin, accounted for 50% of total new orders. The ratio is expected to further increase due to the trend of unmanned mining operation.
Combined coal mining equipment （CCMU）。 Backlog amounted to RMB1.5bn, with another contract of RMB300mn to be signed. This is equivalent to six-month backlog, offering good visibility in 1H22E.
Mining truck. SANYI delivered ~1,900 units of wide-body truck in 2021. In Dec, SANYI signed agreement with clients in Inner Mongolia to deliver 1,710 units of wide-body trucks this year （ASP: RMB0.95-1.1mn）。 SANYI targets to achieve sales of 800-1,000 units of electric wide-body truck this year, and to take the electric ratio to >50% in three to five years. Gross margin is expected to expand upon the launch of 2nd generation model.
Logistic equipment. For large-size port machinery, demand is strong due to the recovery in the overseas. Backlog amounted to RMB1.8bn （including RMB800mn in overseas）。 For small-size machinery, backlog amounted to RMB600mn （including RMB200mn in overseas）。 The growth is driven by reach stacker, heavy forklift and electric tractor.
Robotic. Among the three product lines, automated guided vehicles （AGV） and electric forklift are expected to grow faster than the system integration.
For internal sales, SANYI already helped SANY Group complete the upgrade of 27 smart factories （out of a total of 46）。 For external sales, SANYI recently won contracts from CRRC to deliver AGVs. SANYI has just established a distribution network which will help speed up the external sales volume. Current backlog amounted to RMB700-800mn, and potential contract （RMB900mn） is in the discussion stage.
本週，我們邀請了三一的管理層與投資者分享最新進展。主要利好因素：(1)所有細分市場的強勁需求，未來5-6個月的積壓產能已經足夠；(2)在新產品和嚴格成本控制的支持下，每個細分市場的毛利率都有所擴大；(3)智能和電子產品的快速推出。我們微調了2021年/22年的收益預測-4%/+2%。在23倍2022E市盈率不變的基礎上，我們的TP略有上調至14.6港元。展望未來，我們看到了三一拓展新能源領域的潛力。維持買入。
道路頁眉。目前每月的訂單量達到70-80台，遠高於去年年初的45-50台。能見度從過去的1-2個月增加到3個月。毛利率為40%-45%的智能機型佔總新訂單的50%。由於無人採礦作業的趨勢，預計這一比例將進一步增加。
聯合採煤設備(CCMU)。積壓的訂單達15億元人民幣，另有3億元人民幣的合同有待簽署。這相當於六個月的積壓，在1H22E中提供了良好的可見性。
礦車。三一在2021年交付了約1900輛寬體卡車。去年12月，三一與內蒙古的客户簽署協議，今年將交付1710輛寬體卡車(平均售價：0.95-110萬元人民幣)。三一今年的目標是實現800-1000輛電動寬體卡車的銷量，並在三到五年內將電動比提高到50%以上。預計在推出第二代機型後，毛利率將會擴大。
後勤設備。對於大型港口機械，由於海外市場復甦，需求旺盛。訂單總額為18億元人民幣(包括海外8億元人民幣)。小型機械的訂貨金額為6億元人民幣(含海外2億元人民幣)。增長是由堆料機、重型叉車和電動拖拉機推動的。
機器人。在這三條產品線中，自動導引車(AGV)和電動叉車的增長速度預計將快於系統集成。
在內部銷售方面，三一集團已經幫助三一集團完成了27家智能工廠的升級(總共46家)。在外部銷售方面，三一最近贏得了中國中車的合同，負責交付AGV。三一剛剛建立了分銷網絡，這將有助於加快對外銷售量。目前的積壓金額為700-8億元，潛在合同(9億元)正在洽談階段。
