Hot spots of the week
Investors bet on US loan funds, with weekly capital inflows hitting a five-year high
Weekly inflows into US loan funds reached their highest level in five years amid widespread expectations that the Fed would take a hawkish stance. Us loan funds attracted about $1.9 billion in inflows in the week to Wednesday, the largest weekly inflows into the asset class in five years, according to data provider EPFR. Loans benefit more from the Fed's policy shift than corporate bonds because the interest paid to investors rises and falls as the benchmark interest rate rises and falls. By contrast, interest rates on corporate bonds are fixed and do not change over time. This means that as interest rates rise, so do the returns on loans to investors, while bond prices tend to fall.
JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO: raise interest rates 6-7 times this year
On Friday, January 14, JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Dimon, the largest bank by assets in the United States, said on a conference call with the Quarterly News that the Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates more times than the market currently expected, and warned that policy tightening was not necessarily "mild and sweet" as expected. Against the backdrop of soaring inflation, Dimon believes that "the Fed is likely to raise interest rates more than four times, maybe six or seven times." He expected interest rate increases to exceed the implied curve, but did not specify when up to seven rate increases would occur.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway will sell 128.5 billion yen of bonds
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway plans to sell 128.5 billion yen ($1.13 billion) of bonds to continue to take advantage of Japan's ultra-low borrowing costs. This will be the fourth year in a row that the company has issued yen-denominated bonds. The company priced the five-year bond on Friday with a coupon of 0.203%. Berkshire's bond sales are attractive to local investors in an environment of negative interest rates in Japan.
Although Japanese bond yields also rose at the start of the year under global consumer price pressure, they rose relatively small compared with the dollar market.
Biden nominates Ruskin as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve or promotes stricter financial regulation
U.S. president Joe Biden nominated Sarah Bloom Raskin, a former governor of the Federal Reserve, as vice chairman in charge of financial regulation. It is reported that Ruskin, who served as a Fed governor and Treasury official during the Obama administration, may push the Fed to be more stringent in regulation. If Ruskin takes office, she is expected to promote policies on thorny issues, including financial risks arising from climate change, community lending rules and financial technology companies, and may review several changes to Quarles' rules. these changes relate to banks' speculative investment, derivatives trading, liquidity and capital rules.
Federal Reserve: reducing inflation is the most important task
Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman nominee and Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said on the 13th that the current US inflation rate is too high and that reducing inflation is the most important task of the Federal Reserve. The Fed can use a range of tools to bring inflation down and has taken a number of measures, including ending asset purchases in March. In addition, Fed officials expect several interest rate hikes this year and have begun to discuss how to shrink the balance sheet. Several Fed officials, including Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Huck, have recently hinted that the Fed may decide to raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting on March 15-16.
The total value of venture capital transactions in the United States reached nearly $330 billion in 2021, a record high.
The latest report by PitchBook and the American Venture Capital Association shows that the total value of US venture capital transactions reached a record nearly $330 billion in 2021, driven by excess liquidity and loose monetary policy. Venture capital firms have stepped up their bets on technology, biotechnology, healthcare and fintech, announcing 17054 deals last year, an all-time high. Venture capital deals also set a record in 2021, with total financing exceeding $100 billion for the first time to $128.3 billion, an increase of $40 billion from 2020.
Meta, Facebook Inc's parent company, may face another antitrust investigation
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and several states, led by New York, are investigating potential anti-competitive behavior of virtual reality helmet maker Oculus on Friday, local time, Bloomberg reported. The investigation could be a setback to the social media giant's plans to build a meta universe, a virtual space where people can work, play and socialize. It also highlights the increase in U. S. government scrutiny the company faces as it continues to grow.
This week, U.S. District Judge James Boasberg rejected Meta's request to dismiss FTC's revised antitrust charges, but he also indicated that the agency will face an uphill battle in proving the charges.
Review of the market
Institutional viewpoint
Goldman Sachs Group: us stocks are overvalued, and the S & P 500 can rise 6.3% this year.
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer of Goldman Sachs Group's consumer and wealth management division, believes that investors should continue to be bullish on the US stock market this year, despite historically high valuations. "using valuation as a sign of exit from the stock market is actually invalid," Rahmani said on Thursday. Investors who withdraw from the market for fear of overvaluation may miss out on huge returns. Goldman Sachs Group's basic scenario forecast is that the S & P 500 will achieve a total return of 6.3 per cent this year.
Goldman Sachs Group advised investors to "overweight" US stocks, and Rahmani said the US maintained its edge in innovation, citing increased labour productivity and relatively strong corporate profit growth. The US stock market is likely to wobble in 2022 and a "downdraft" at any time of the year, but the risk of recession is low.
Morgan Stanley: optimize these stocks to cope with volatile markets
Morgan Stanley stock strategist Michael Wilson expects the stock market to fluctuate, so he makes a list of stocks to deal with.
Yields on 10-year treasury bonds soared to a record high of 1.80% on Monday, arguing that rising yields on risk-free bonds made speculative stocks less attractive. "We are entering a tighter monetary policy system, which historically means lower returns in the stock market and increased uncertainty at the index level," he said. There are two major concerns this year: one is that rising bond yields and tighter monetary conditions will weaken the attractiveness of high-growth, high-valued stocks. Second, it is expected that the slowdown in US economic growth is expected to pose a major resistance to corporate profit growth.
Defensive stock list
To fend off expected fluctuations, Wilson picked a list of defensive stocks-those with the most reliable returns and the most attractive valuations.
The list includes$Comcast Corp (CMCSA.US) $ 、$Meta Platforms (FB.US) $、Yum Restaurant (YUM.US) $、$monster drink (MNST.US) $、$Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ.US) $、$Philip Morris International Inc (PM.US) $、$Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.US) $、$State Street Bank (STT.US) $、$Medtronic PLC (MDT.US) $、$Savis Health (CVS.US) $、$Northrop Grumman (NOC.US) $、$HubSpot (HUBS.US) $、$PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL.US) $、$American Network Storage (NTAP.US) $、$Gaozhite (CTSH.US) $、Bauer Packaging (BLL.US) $、$American Power (AEP.US) $。
Wood Mackenzie: the epidemic stops the long-term decline in renewable energy costs
The downward trend in renewable energy prices stopped last year, but should recover when supply chain tensions caused by the outbreak ease, according to Wood Mackenzie, a research consultancy. The average cost of new solar power in Asia rose by 9.0 per cent (as measured by the life cycle cost of power plants), while the average cost of onshore wind power rose by 2.0 per cent. This seems to be a setback in the process of applying renewable energy, but the cost of generating electricity from coal and natural gas has risen even more.
At present, during the life of the project, the average cost of renewable energy in Asia is about 16% higher than that of fossil fuels, but it may be 28% lower than coal by 2030.
Jingshun Great Wall: the deficiency of lithium power supply in 2022 will still exist.
Jingshun Great Wall science and technology research team said at the press conference of the new energy vehicle insight report that the short supply board of the lithium power industry will still exist in 2022, especially the diaphragm, lithium resources, PVDF, copper foil and other constraints, will still maintain a tight balance.
However, the stage of tight supply in the industrial chain will eventually pass, and more attention should be paid to the new technologies and directions to solve the pain points of battery life and charging, such as the application and promotion of 4680 batteries, single-walled carbon nanotubes and 800V high voltage systems in fast charging technology, as well as CTP, soft-clad iron lithium batteries with blades, advanced thermal management and so on.
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