The eagle is loud and clear! The Federal Reserve expects to raise interest rates three times next year, doubling the size reduction.

On December 15, local time, the Federal Reserve said in a statement that it would accelerate the reduction of bond purchases and expected to raise interest rates three times in 2022 to control the pace of inflation. The Fed first announced in November that it would scale back its monthly bond purchases, and the statement on the 15th of this month said it would accelerate the pace of reduction.

Starting in January, the Fed will reduce its purchases of $20 billion worth of Treasuries and $10 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities. According to current estimates by Fed officials, the Fed's benchmark interest rate will rise to 0.9% in 2022, up from 0.3% expected in September.

Securities Daily article: the Fed's accelerated reduction of bond purchases has a limited impact on China's financial market.

Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, predicts that the impact of Fed monetary tightening on China's financial market is relatively limited, but it cannot be ruled out that it will increase the volatility of China's stock, bond and foreign exchange markets in the short term, especially the latter two.

Bai Xue, an analyst at Oriental Jincheng Research and Development, said that China's monetary policy places more emphasis on "autonomy." Therefore, no matter what the pace of the Fed's rate increase next year, it will not have a substantial impact on the orientation of domestic monetary policy, and domestic monetary policy will still be "self-dominated" in 2022. In the medium term, the margin of domestic monetary policy will widen in the first half of next year, and interest rates still have room for further decline.

On December 6, the people's Bank of China announced that in order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady decline in comprehensive financing costs, it was decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the deposit reserve ratio of 5%).

With regard to the impact of the reduction on the industry, specific to the industry level, the impact of the reduction on bank stocks and real estate stocks is logically different.

First, the RRR cut is beneficial to bank stocks in terms of quantity, but considering the macroeconomic pressure and the possible downgrade of LPR quotation, bank stocks face the pressure of declining asset quality and narrowing net interest margin, so the overall RRR cut does not effectively boost bank stocks.

Second, the marginal profit of real estate stocks in terms of liquidity, superimposed macroeconomic pressure to a certain extent to enhance the necessity of maintaining the steady growth of real estate investment, so the marginal profit of real estate stocks.

The blue chip market may open, and consumption is expected to become the most definite main line in the medium-term market.

CITIC: the market is expected to enter the tipping point of the blue chip market for the New year after months of silence.

CITIC believes that the disturbance of the overseas epidemic and the concern that the Fed may accelerate the reduction of bond purchases have a limited impact on A shares, the market is easy to rise and difficult to fall under abundant market liquidity, and the high probability of incremental funds revolves around the layout of the "three lows." the market is expected to enter the tipping point of the New year blue-chip market after months of silence.

From the perspective of industry configuration, focus on:

1) varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be still low, pay attention to the mid-stream manufacturing suppressed by cost and supply chain problems, such as small household appliances, auto parts, electrical equipment, etc., and gradually increase the valuation to return to a reasonable range of some consumer and pharmaceutical industries, such as spirits, food, duty-free, vaccines and so on.

2) the varieties whose valuations are still relatively low, pay attention to the high-quality developers and building materials enterprises after the expected slow release of real estate credit risk, as well as the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of Chinese stocks.

3) the high prosperity varieties whose adjusted stock prices are relatively low, such as semiconductor equipment driven by domestic logic, special chip devices and military industry, etc. From a style point of view, we still believe that the industry leaders will obviously win, from this year's short-money-driven "all-star" market to a new blue-chip market driven by institutional funds.

Guotai Junan Securities: the consumer sector will become the most definite main line in the medium-term market.

Guotai Junan Securities believes that the New year market is approaching, consumer switching or an important main line of the market in the middle of the market.

Economic uncertainty has decreased, risk assessment has declined, and risk appetite has risen, helping to boost the market for the New year. With the convening of important meetings, the core marginal sword of policy is to stabilize the economy. According to the order of steady growth and the revision of pessimistic expectations, it is recommended that:

1) consumption: accelerate the bottom of expectations, recommend spirits, live pigs, home appliances, furniture and social services / tourism with supported performance and diluted negative expectations

2) Finance: brokerage, bank

3) Technology Manufacturing: consumer Electronics and Semiconductors

4) New energy: photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other high prosperity direction.

Anxin Securities: the policy is expected to increase, focusing on the opportunity of undervalued sector valuation repair.

Anxin Securities believes that the decline in commodity prices, the Federal Reserve Taper, and the phased relaxation of Sino-US relations have laid the foundation for the opening of a new round of A-share market.

The direction of policy force is expected to be: fiscal strength ahead, monetary policy "me-oriented" more flexible, and credit supply stable and re-structured.

Anxin Securities believes that in the early stage of wide credit, undervalued sector valuation repair is expected to become the main line of the market, domestic real estate policy marginal recovery, social finance growth rate stabilized and rebounded, year-end capital preference for undervalued sectors and other factors are the main reasons.

With the confirmation of the wide credit policy, the Gaojing Qichang track growth stocks represented by Ning combination are expected to follow the follow-up market, driving a new round of market rise, small and medium-sized growth, meta-universe and other themes will also be active repeatedly.

Configuration: the current focus on undervalued sector valuation repair opportunities, including undervalued small-cap stocks, as well as financial real estate-non-bank / bank / real estate / building materials / home appliances (policy marginal relaxation, lower mid-stream cost pressure), communications / consumer electronics (business transformation), food and beverage (expected price increase) and other sector valuation repair opportunities.