Cost is a drag on performance, and the price increase of Q4 main products may usher in an improvement. Maintaining the "buy" rating company released three quarterly reports, the total revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 7.92 billion yuan, + 46.9% compared with the same period last year; the net profit was 1.13 billion yuan, + 76.5%; and the net profit after deducting non-return was 1.05 billion yuan, + 86.9% compared with the same period last year. Q3 achieved a net profit of 208 million yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of-53.5%; after deducting non-return, the net profit was 177 million yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of-58.3%. The decline in performance in a single quarter was mainly dragged down by the rise in the cost of raw materials. We appropriately downgrade our profit forecast. It is estimated that the 2021-2023 net return of 15.5x219x22.1) will be RMB15.5max 20.5max, an increase of 74.2%, 32.1% and 1.81p, respectively, of 1.81pm, 2.392.42 (2.57x2.60) and 5.95.8 times of the previous share price, respectively, as compared with the previous share price of RMB1.832.1 (the previous value of 2.57exexp) of the stock price before the year-on-year increase of 74.2% and 32.1% of the same period over the same period last year. The first phase of Qingdao is gradually expanding and the construction of the second phase is advancing in an orderly manner. at the same time, Q4 main products have launched a comprehensive price increase, which is optimistic about the company's future performance and maintains a "buy" rating.
The increase in the price of Q3 raw materials is a drag on the performance of coke black.
Coke production is limited, Q3 month-on-month decline. In the first three quarters of 2021, coke production / sales volume was 140,000,000 tons (compared with the same period last year), of which Q3 production / sales volume was 378x385,000 tons (month-on-month ratio-27.9% Universe 30.6%), of which Q3 production / sales volume was 11.5% compared with the same period last year. Q3 the coke output of the company is affected by the policy-limited production capacity of the coking industry in Shandong Province. The increment of carbon black is obvious. In the first three quarters, the carbon underground industry / sales volume of 275ax 268,000 tons (compared with the same period last year + 24.6% Universe 24.5%). Among them, the sales volume of Q3 carbon black was 104000 tons (month-on-month ratio + 20.3%), and the Qingdao production line contributed mainly to the full production. In terms of price, Q3 coke rose sharply compared with the previous month, while carbon black remained flat. In the first three quarters, the price of coke / carbon black (excluding tax) was 27986,740 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 42.5% / + 58.4%), of which Q3 coke price was 3258 yuan / ton (month-on-month ratio + 24.7%) and carbon black price was 6749 yuan / ton (month-on-month ratio-0.4%). In the same period, the market price of coke / carbon black is + 29% and 0.2%, which is basically in line with the company.
The cost of Q3 raw materials has soared and profits have been dragged down. The purchase price of Q3 main raw material coal / coal tar (excluding tax) is 3704 yuan / ton (month-on-month ratio + 118% ash 75%), and the gross profit per ton may be compressed.
Qingdao PDH project releases production and pays attention to production progress and profitability. Q3 Qingdao PDH and PP production lines have already released production, propylene / polypropylene output is 2.71 million tons, sales volume is 0.56 million tons, and 9900 tons of propylene production is for self-use. The current project is in the early stage of production, Q3 has not yet achieved full production and sales, we still need to pay attention to the progress of Q4 production. In terms of price and cost, the price of Q3 propylene / polypropylene (excluding tax) is 6826max 7507 yuan / ton, which is basically in line with the market price of the same period; the purchase price of Q3 propane (excluding tax) is 4900 yuan / ton. At present, the price of propane is still high, and the profit of PDH is still restricted to some extent.
Q4 major products overall price increase, performance may usher in improvement
According to Wind data, since October, the market price of coke / carbon black has increased by 31% more than the average price of Q3. At the same time, the rise in the price of crude oil has led to a surge in the price of propylene. Since October, the market price of propylene / polypropylene has increased by 18% and 15% compared with the average price of Q3. The overall price increase of major products is expected to ease the cost pressure of high prices of raw materials. At the same time, Qingdao carbon black and PDH are officially put into production in Q3, Q4 production is expected, and the performance is expected to be improved at both ends of volume and price.
The company also plans to have the second phase of the project (900000 tons of PDH+100 10,000 tons of PP) or to start construction at the end of the year, which will further expand the scale of PDH production capacity and is optimistic about the company's future growth potential.
Risk hints: the economic recovery is not as expected; the prices of raw materials and products fluctuate; the progress of project construction is not as expected.