The new energy business is in the development period, and the decline in short-term profitability affects the performance of 1-9M2021 revenue of 1.716 billion yuan / yoy+12.8%; return net profit of 1.7 billion yuan / yoy-29.6%.
21Q3 revenue 632 million yuan / yoy-13.3%/qoq+1.2%, return net profit 7810 million yuan / yoy+35.1%/qoq+26.9%. Due to the pressure of cost control this year, we have slightly reduced the EPS for 2021 / 2023 to 0.67 / 0.85 / 1.07 for 2023 (the previous value is 0.72 / 1.03 / 1.39). Comparable company's 22-year Wind unanimously expected PE39.4 times, considering that the company's new product stacking machine has been basically recognized in the client, and the whole product line is still in the process of layout. PE is 35.5 times 22 years after giving 0.9 times discount, and the target price is 30.18 yuan (the previous value is 39.32 yuan). Maintain the buy rating.
The raw materials are in a high position, the superimposed new energy business is in the development period, and the profitability has declined. In the first three quarters, the gross profit margin is 36.31%. The gross profit margin of the first three quarters is 37.4%/yoy-2.95pct/ qoq+2.5pct; the net profit margin of the first three quarters is 13.93%/yoy-5pct, and the net profit margin of Q3 sales is 17.1%/yoy-3.5pct / qoq+ 3.5pct. The expense rate during the first three quarters is 23.4%/yoy + 3.6 pct.
The decline in profitability is mainly affected by the rise in raw materials and the increase in the proportion of new energy business, and the rebound in the third quarter is mainly due to the impact of product delivery structure. The company cuts into the new field of power lithium electricity, and when seizing new application areas and strategic customers, the cost of manufacturing and sales is relatively high. in order to speed up the business development and product development of new energy, the company increases investment in research and development and production capacity. the pre-R & D investment and capacity climbing do not reach the pre-cost during the full production period, which will also reduce the profit margin level. With sufficient orders, inventory 468 million / yoy+34.5%, contract liabilities 113 million / yoy+109% in the first three quarters of 21.
Lithium electricity new product development and new customer development is the first priority, stacking machine products to promote faster power slicing and stacking machine development completed, the third quarter won the honeycomb energy stacking machine order, the progress is higher than expected, with the growth of square battery demand, the demand for stacking machine is expected to continue to grow. At present, the lamination efficiency of the mainstream products in the market is 0.45 seconds per piece. It is expected that there will be a high-speed stacking machine on the market in 22 years. With the improvement of lamination efficiency and the continuous decline of cost, the demand for stacking machine will continue to grow rapidly. The company's power lithium stacking machine is in the forefront of the industry in terms of efficiency, accuracy and mass production capacity, and is expected to gain a larger market share in the future; the company has continuously improved the power lithium product matrix since the beginning of this year. It is expected to form the supply capacity of square aluminum and soft package battery assembly line in the second half of the year.
Mobile terminal business remains stable, 22-year AR/VR new product release is expected to drive test equipment demand to avoid repeated uncertain effects of the epidemic on the supply chain and production, the delivery pace was accelerated in the first half of the year, mobile terminal business revenue is expected to maintain growth in the first three quarters, and growth may slow in the fourth quarter due to chip constraints. The company actively grasps and deeply digs the needs of brand customers, adds a variety of testing equipment such as air tightness, screens and cameras, and continues to develop and expand the category of AR/VR-related testing equipment.
Risk tips: raw material prices fluctuate; the progress of lithium power production is lower than expected.