Items:
The company released its third quarterly report for 2021 on October 28, and 2021Q1-Q3 realized operating income of 793 million yuan, an increase of 52.34% over the same period last year. The net profit returned to the mother was 116 million yuan, an increase of 55.02% over the same period last year. Of this total, Q3 achieved an operating income of 277 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 44.31 percent over the same period last year. The net profit was 37 million yuan, an increase of 24.26% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The growth rate of revenue and net profit is in line with expectations, and full-year revenue is expected to improve. According to the prospectus performance forecast, 2021Q1-Q3 expected operating income of 7.76-804 million yuan, expected return net profit of 1.15-118 million yuan, the actual performance is in line with expectations. Compared with 2020, the company's composite plastic packaging customer order demand increased significantly, industrial paper packaging products grew steadily, and the overall revenue growth rate increased significantly compared with the same period last year. The operating losses of the subsidiary Aidan New Materials and Ruipai Packaging have further narrowed, and the operating performance has been steadily improved. From a quarterly point of view, affected by downstream customers, the company's overall revenue is slightly lower in the first quarter and slightly higher in the fourth quarter. Combined with the characteristics of a low base in 2020, annual income is expected to achieve a growth rate of more than 35%.
The two major growth curves take shape, and the third or fourth growth curve has great potential. The company takes industrial packaging and food packaging as the first and second growth curve, covering chemical, building materials, food, medicine, cosmetics and other fields, the management system is mature, customers are leaders in all fields. Among them, Miao Ke Landuo has grown into the brand with the first market share of cheese consumption. Combined with the growth space of the domestic cheese market, the increment space is huge. The company takes new energy and new materials as the third and fourth growth curve, which is currently in its infancy and has good development prospects, and is expected to become an important growth point of the company's revenue in the future.
Significant technological advantages, plus R & D to introduce high-end talent. The company has realized the whole process closed loop in packaging technology, which can achieve full-speed, efficient and contactless production to ensure production efficiency and product safety. The company attaches great importance to research and development, and set up a new product innovation center in Shanghai at the beginning of this year to attract high-end talents through annual salary system, equity incentive, sales commission and other ways to achieve continuous iteration of products.
The gross profit decreased slightly compared with the same period last year, and the cost increased significantly during the period. The gross profit margin of 2021Q1-Q3 was 32.73%, down 0.4pct from the same period last year. It is mainly affected by the time delay of cost transfer under the fluctuation of raw materials. Judging from the Q3 single quarter, the gross profit margin is 34.43%, and the cost-side impact has been restored. The sales expenses / administrative expenses / financial expenses are 0.38%, 0.55 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 58.33%, 41.03%, 10.00% over the same period last year. Affected by the increase in the price of export shipping freight, the growth rate of sales expenses is slightly higher than that of revenue, which leads to the overall upward movement of sales expenses. Under the influence of preferential social security policies, the management cost was at a low level in 2020, and the superimposed salary increase led to a significant increase in management costs.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating. We believe that the company's accumulated technical advantages in industrial packaging and food packaging and high-quality downstream customers well support the company's annual performance, and the forward-looking layout provides an effective guarantee for future performance growth. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 164,252max, EPS is 0.41 and 0.63, respectively, and the corresponding share price PE will be as much as that of 36-23-17. Using the absolute valuation method, the company's target price will be maintained at 21 yuan per share, corresponding to 33 times of PE in 2022, and the "strong push" rating will be maintained.
Risk tips: unfavorable business expansion, intensified market competition, and so on.