Original title: world's largest independent crude oil trader: oil prices still depend on OPEC+ in the coming months

Mike Muller, head of Vitol Group Asia, the world's largest independent crude oil trader, said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and its allies would remain a major factor in oil price volatility in the coming months, with pricing control largely in the hands of OPEC+. In the United States, if you need extra oil, you simply can't catch up with the number of rigs.

Compared with three years ago, this is a considerable change. At that time, as a result of the second shale oil boom, the United States became the world's largest oil producer and was believed to be a major factor in the rise in oil prices.

On Monday, OPEC+ agreed to maintain its current gradual production plan. At the ministerial meeting on the same day, OPEC+ member countries agreed to increase production by 400000 b / d as planned from November. At present, OPEC+ is still carrying out production reduction measures of 5.8 million b / d, but plans to gradually withdraw the production reduction agreement by April 2022. News of existing plans to increase production boosted oil prices on Monday, with US crude reaching its highest level since November 2014 and Brent crude hitting its highest level since October 2018.

Some analysts say the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) is unlikely to acquiesce in requests for more production and lower prices, not only because it benefits from higher prices, but also because some member states are unable to increase their production capacity and they do not have such oil supply storage to maintain higher supplies.

Stephen Brennock of PVM, an oil broker, said on Friday that the near-term outlook for oil prices remained supportive and that the current price trend was a recovery and that only those with deep pockets would short oil.

If the winter in the northern hemisphere is as cold as expected, this dynamic in the oil market is likely to last longer. With Europe's natural gas reserves below the five-year average, oil demand is likely to remain strong for quite some time, despite a bleak long-term outlook. This means that the OPEC+ will continue to call the shots under the leadership of the member states with the most spare capacity.