Qixiang Tengda (002408): MMA and nitrile latex project put into production to release performance increment

海通證券 · Aug 31, 2021 00:00

　　投资要点：

　　齐翔腾达发布2021 中报。2021H1，公司实现营业总收入177.49 亿元，同比+79.08%，归母净利润14.69 亿元，同比+208.93%。其中，2021Q2，公司实现营业收入90.48 亿元，归母净利润8.02 亿元。我们认为，公司上半年业绩同比增长，主要原因为20 万吨/年丁腈胶乳项目二期（10 万吨/年）、20万吨/年甲基丙烯酸甲酯（MMA）分别于2021 年1 月和3 月建成投产后新产能释放、顺酐化工类产品价格上涨及供应链业务量增加。

　　顺酐化工类产品毛利率稳中有升。2021H1，甲乙酮作为公司重要产品之一，营收同比-25.35%，毛利率达28.29%，同比-4.40 个百分点；顺酐继续提高盈利能力和市场竞争力，公司为世界最大顺酐生产企业，2021H1 毛利率达21.40%，同比+8.90 个百分点。2021H1，华东地区甲乙酮和顺酐均价分别为8037 元/吨和9598 元/吨，同比+11.0%和+64.1%。

　　化工其他类产品营收及毛利率同比大幅增长。化工其他类产品营收同比+310.68%，毛利率高达45.75%，同比+28.84 个百分点，成为公司主要业务中毛利率最高的产品。2021 年，公司20 万吨/年丁腈胶乳项目二期（10 万吨/年）、20 万吨/年甲基丙烯酸甲酯（MMA）分别于1 月和3 月建成投产，我们认为，新项目产能释放为公司带来了显著业绩增量。2021H1，华东地区MMA 和羧基丁腈胶乳均价分别为12748 元/吨和10634 元/吨，同比+27.3%和+78.6%。我们预计，随着公司在建PMMA 项目建成投产，将形成MMA-PMMA 上下游产业链，进一步提升公司盈利能力。

　　在建扩产项目稳步推进。截止2021H1，除已建成投产的20 万吨/年丁腈胶乳项目二期（10 万吨/年）、20 万吨/年MMA 外，公司目前稳步推进项目包括：

　　1）70 万吨PDH 项目，累计投资7.52 亿元，项目进度21.74%；2）30 万吨环氧丙烷项目，累计投资3.68 亿元，项目进度9.79%；3）20 万吨异壬醇项目，累计投资1.95 亿元，项目进度10.85%；4）10 万吨/年PMMA 项目，累计投资0.96 亿元，项目进度8.92%；5）20 万吨/年顺酐扩建项目（含10万吨），累计投资0.47 亿元，项目进度3.51%；6）360 吨/年顺酐催化剂项目，累计投资0.11 亿元，项目进度77.51%。

　　盈利预测与投资评级。我们预计公司2021~2023 年EPS 分别为1.45、1.68、1.96 元，按照2021 年EPS 以及12-15 倍PE，我们给予公司17.40-21.75元的合理价值区间，给予“优于大市”评级。

　　风险提示：原材料及产品价格大幅波动；项目建设进度不达预期。

Main points of investment:

Qi Xiang Tengda released the 2021 China News. 2021H1, the company achieved total operating income of 17.749 billion yuan, year-on-year + 79.08%, return to the mother net profit of 1.469 billion yuan, year-on-year + 208.93%. Among them, 2021Q2, the company achieved operating income of 9.048 billion yuan, return to the mother of the net profit of 802 million yuan. We believe that the year-on-year increase in the company's performance in the first half of the year is mainly due to the release of new capacity after the completion and commissioning of 200,000 tons / year nitrile latex project Phase II (100,000 tons / year) and 200000 tons / year methyl methacrylate (MMA) in January and March 2021, respectively, the increase in the price of maleic anhydride chemical products and the increase in supply chain business.

The gross profit margin of maleic anhydride chemical products has increased steadily. 2021H1, methyl ethyl ketone as one of the company's important products, revenue is-25.35% year-on-year, gross profit margin is 28.29%, year-on-year-4.40%; maleic anhydride continues to improve profitability and market competitiveness, the company is the world's largest maleic anhydride manufacturer, 2021H1 gross profit margin of 21.40%, year-on-year + 8.90%. The average prices of 2021H1, methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride in East China were 8037 yuan / ton and 9598 yuan / ton respectively, + 11.0% and + 64.1% compared with the same period last year.

The revenue and gross profit margin of other chemical products increased significantly compared with the same period last year. The revenue of other chemical products is + 310.68% compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit margin is as high as 45.75%, which is + 28.84% compared with the same period last year, making it the product with the highest gross profit margin in the company's main business. In 2021, the second phase of 200,000 tons / year nitrile latex project (100,000 tons / year) and 200,000 tons / year methyl methacrylate (MMA) were completed and put into production in January and March, respectively. We believe that the release of new project capacity has brought significant performance increments for the company. The average prices of 2021H1, MMA and carboxyl nitrile latex in East China were 12748 yuan / ton and 10634 yuan / ton respectively, which were + 27.3% and + 78.6% respectively compared with the same period last year. We expect that as the PMMA project under construction is completed and put into production, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of MMA-PMMA will be formed, which will further enhance the profitability of the company.

Steady progress has been made in the construction and expansion project. By the end of 2021H1, in addition to the second phase of the 200,000 tons / year nitrile latex project (100,000 tons / year) and 200,000 tons / year MMA, the company is steadily advancing the following projects:

1) 700000 ton PDH project with a cumulative investment of 752 million yuan, project schedule 21.74% Bing 2) 300000 ton propylene oxide project, cumulative investment 368 million yuan, project schedule 9.79% bot 3) 200000 ton isononanol project, cumulative investment 195 million yuan, project schedule 10.85% X 4) 100,000 t / a PMMA project, cumulative investment 96 million yuan, project schedule 8.92% 5) 200,000 tons / year maleic anhydride expansion project (including 100000 tons), the cumulative investment is 47 million yuan, the project schedule is 3.51% X 6) 360 tons / year maleic anhydride catalyst project, the cumulative investment is 11 million yuan, and the progress of the project is 77.51%.

Profit forecast and investment rating. We estimate that the company's EPS in 2021-2023 will be 1.45,1.68,1.96 yuan respectively. According to the 2021 EPS and 12-15 times PE, we will give the company a reasonable value range of 17.40-21.75 yuan and a rating of "better than the market".

Risk hint: the prices of raw materials and products fluctuate greatly; the progress of project construction is not as expected.

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齐翔腾达(002408)：MMA与丁腈胶乳项目投产释放业绩增量

Qixiang Tengda (002408): MMA and nitrile latex project put into production to release performance increment

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