By Sarupya Ganguly
作者：Sarupya Ganguly
Bengaluru, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Recent U.S. Dollar Weakness Will Stall in the Coming Three Months Despite Financial Market Traders Ramping up Bets for Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts, According to a Majority of Foreign Exchange Strategists Surveyed by Reuters.
班加羅爾9月5日電（路透社）— 路透社調查的大多數外匯策略師表示，儘管金融市場交易員加大了對聯儲局減息的押注，但最近的美元疲軟將在未來三個月內停滯不前。
After Surging About 5% Against a Basket of Major Currencies by Midyear, the Greenback .dxy Lost Almost All Its Gains as Interest Rate Futures Started Pricing in About 100 Basis Points of Fed Easing This Year, Nearly Double June's Expectations.
美元兌一籃子主要貨幣在年中飆升了約5％之後，美元兌一籃子主要貨幣飆升了約5％ .dxy 由於利率期貨在聯儲局今年寬鬆政策的約100個點子上開始定價，幾乎失去了所有漲幅，幾乎是6月份預期的兩倍。
That Was Driven in Part by July Labor Market Data Showing Signs of a Slowdown, Bolstered by Reassurance From Fed Chair Jerome Powell in His Latest Speech at Jackson Hole Hinting Rate Cuts Were Coming.
這在一定程度上是由7月勞動力市場數據顯示出放緩跡象所推動的，這得益於聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在最新講話中的保證 傑克遜霍爾 暗示減息即將到來。
Interest Rate Futures Markets Have Fully Priced in a 25 BP Fed Rate Cut This Month, With Around 40% Priced in for Another 25 BP Reduction, Suggesting a Significant Risk of a Half-Point Cut.
利率期貨市場已對本月聯儲局減息25個點子進行了全面定價，其中約40％預計再減息25個點子，這表明下調半個點子的風險很大。
"There's Probably Going to Be a Bit of Volatility in Markets in the Next Week or Two. Payrolls Data Will Ultimately Determine Whether the Fed Goes 50 or 25 on September 18, and That Will Drive the Short-Run Direction of the Dollar," Said Shaun Osborne, Chief Currency Strategist at Scotiabank.
“在接下來的一兩週內，市場可能會有一點波動。豐業銀行首席貨幣策略師肖恩·奧斯本表示，就業數據最終將決定聯儲局在9月18日是50還是25日走向，這將推動美元的短期走向。
Economists in a Separate Reuters Poll Expected Data Due on Friday to Show 160,000 Job Additions in August, a Rebound From July's 114,000 Increase and the Unemployment Rate Dropping Marginally to 4.2%.
經濟學家在路透社的另一項民意調查中預計，週五公佈的數據顯示，8月份將增加16萬個工作崗位，從7月份的11.4萬個增幅中反彈，失業率小幅下降至4.2％。
The Euro EUR= Was Forecast to Fall Only About 0.5%, From Around $1.11 Currently to $1.10 By End-November, According to Median Forecasts in the Reuters Aug. 30-Sept. 4 Of 76 FX Strategists.
歐元 歐元= 路透社8月30日至9月4日對76位外匯策略師的預測中位數顯示，預計將僅下跌約0.5％，從目前的1.11美元左右降至11月底的1.10美元。
It Was Then Predicted to Only Rise Back to $1.11 by End-February and to $1.12 in a Year, Suggesting Limited Gains for the Common Currency.
當時預計到2月底它只會回升至1.11美元，一年後才會上漲至1.12美元，這表明共同貨幣的漲幅有限。
"We Would Not Push Back Too Hard Against the Dollar’s Soft August - the Dollar Starts From a Position of Being Highly Valued, the Fed Can and Looks Likely to Adjust Real Rates Faster Than Other Major Central Banks," Said Kamakshya Trivedi, Head of Global FX, Rates and Em Strategy at Goldman Sachs.
高盛全球外匯、利率和新興市場策略主管Kamakshya Trivedi表示：「我們不會對美元疲軟的8月份進行過大的回擊——美元從高估值的位置開始，聯儲局可以而且看起來很可能會比其他主要中央銀行更快地調整實際利率。」
"We Would, However, Push Back Against Significant Further Weakening in the Dollar Without a Shift in Relative Growth and Asset Return Prospects."
「但是，在相對增長和資產回報前景不發生變化的情況下，我們將抵制美元的進一步大幅疲軟。」
The Latest Positioning Data From the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, However, Showed Speculators Had Flipped Their Bets to Net Short on the Greenback for the First Time Since February.
但是，商品期貨交易委員會的最新定位數據顯示，投機者自2月份以來首次將賭注轉向淨空頭美元。
A Near-70% Majority, 45 of 66, Who Answered an Additional Question Said the Dollar Was Likely to Stay Around the Same Level or Rebound. the Remaining 21 Said It Would Weaken Further.
回答另一個問題的66人中有45人佔近70％，他們表示美元可能會保持在同一水平或反彈。其餘21人表示美元將進一步走弱。
"Market Pricing of 100 Basis Points of Rate Cuts Between Now and the End of the Year Is Pretty Aggressive and at This Point, Hard to See, Given There's Still Pretty Decent Momentum Behind the U.S. Economy," Added Scotiabank's Osborne.
豐業銀行的奧斯本補充說：「從現在起到年底，減息100個點子的市場定價相當激進，鑑於美國經濟背後的勢頭仍然相當不錯，目前很難看出。」
A Separate Reuters Survey of Economists, More Consistent in Their Outlook Through the Year, Predicted a 25 BP Rate Cut in Each of the Three Remaining Fed Meetings This Year.
另一家路透社 經濟學家調查他們預測今年剩下的三次聯儲局會議將分別減息25個點子，他們的全年前景更加一致。
"We Think Recent Dollar Weakness Was Overdone. Yes, the Economy Isn't Great, but Apart From Maybe the Unemployment Rate, There Are Very Few Indicators That Point to a Recession. Most of Them Point to Sluggish, and We Don't Think the Fed Will Do 50 on Sluggish," Said Steve Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered.
「我們認爲最近的美元疲軟過分了。是的，經濟並不好，但是除了失業率之外，很少有指標表明經濟衰退。其中大多數都表明疲軟，我們認爲聯儲局不會在疲軟的情況下做50分。」 渣打銀行G10外匯研究全球主管史蒂夫·英格蘭德說。
Among Other Major Currencies, the Japanese Yen JPY=, Which Has Gained About 12% Against the Dollar From a 38-Year Low in July Due to a Rapid Unwinding of Carry Trades and a Rate Hike From the Bank of Japan, Would Be One of the Biggest Gainers, the Poll Showed. It Was Expected to Rise Nearly 4% to About 139.67 per Dollar in a Year.
除其他主要貨幣外，日元 JPY=民意調查顯示，由於套戥交易的快速平倉和日本央行的加息，日本央行兌美元匯率已從7月份的38年低點上漲了約12％，這將是最大的漲幅之一。預計一年內將上漲近4％，至每美元約139.67美元。
(Other Stories From the September Reuters Foreign Exchange Poll)
(其他故事 摘自9月路透社外匯民意調查）
(Reporting by Sarupya Ganguly and Indradip Ghosh; Polling by Pranoy Krishna, Purujit Arun and Rahul Trivedi; Editing by Ross Finley and Jonathan Oatis)
（Sarupya Ganguly 和 Indradip Ghosh 的報道；Pranoy Krishna、Purujit Arun 和 Rahul Trivedi 的民意調查；羅斯·芬利和喬納森·奧蒂斯編輯）