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央行回应实际利率是否过高:不同行业和企业感受不一样 防止利率过低导致内卷式竞争加剧

The central bank responds to whether real interest rates are too high: different industries and companies have different feelings to prevent internal competition from intensifying due to low interest rates

Breakings ·  Apr 18 15:31

Zou Lan, director of the monetary policy department of the People's Bank of China, said in response to the real interest rate issue at the press conference of the State Information Office on April 18 that the price and real interest rate situation still need to be comprehensively investigated and judged. The current low price level is structural and phased. Judging from the structural situation of prices, CPI, PPI, average loan interest rates, etc. are all average concepts, but in the process of economic structural transformation and upgrading, the differentiation of economic and financial indicators in different fields will increase significantly. In addition to looking at the average, we also need to look at the structure. There are differences in loan interest rates between different industries and enterprises, the rate of rise and fall in product prices is different, and the actual interest rate felt is not the same. For example, product prices in the cultural and entertainment service industry and the new economic momentum sector are showing an upward trend, and the nominal interest rates on bank loans to these sectors are also relatively low, so the actual interest rates felt by enterprises will be low. However, prices in industries such as ferrous metals, which are highly related to real estate, have dropped significantly, and financial institutions are more cautious. The nominal interest rate on loans will be higher, and the actual interest rate felt by enterprises will be higher. However, it is also important to note that for some areas where financial resources currently need to be reallocated, the actual interest rate is slightly higher, which is conducive to driving enterprises to control production capacity and remove inventory. Looking at the phased nature of prices, on the one hand, China's economy continues to improve, aggregate demand is expanding, and there are foundations and conditions for price recovery; on the other hand, prices of some agricultural products have reached an inflection point, and tourism is more common. These factors are conducive to boosting price recovery. Price trends are expected to rise moderately at a low level, and actual interest rates will change accordingly. In the future, the central bank will continue to closely observe in the light of the economic recovery trend and economic transformation. It is necessary not only to maintain nominal interest rates at a reasonable level to consolidate the positive trend of economic recovery, but also to fully consider the need for high-quality development, avoid cutting the momentum of structural adjustment, and prevent internal competition from intensifying and capital idling due to low interest rates. This will cause prices to drop further and form a bad cycle with each other.

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