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大摩:美元走弱或扭转资金流向 标普500存反弹空间

Morgan Stanley: A weaker dollar may reverse Capital Trend, with potential for a rebound in the S&P 500.

Breakings ·  Mar 24 10:11

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson and others believe that a weaker dollar will improve the profit outlook for the USA stock market, which could potentially reverse the large-scale Capital Trend shifts that have been occurring in the global market since the beginning of this year. They stated that the relative performance of the USA stock market might regain an advantage over International Developed Markets stocks. This is because a weaker dollar should support an upward revision of profit expectations for USA companies, thus driving capital back to the USA. An index from Citigroup shows that since the beginning of this year, analysts have downgraded profit expectations for USA companies more than they have upgraded them. However, Wilson believes that signs of a trend reversal have begun to appear. He mentioned that the adjustments in profit expectations for the so-called "seven tech giants" that drove last year's stock market rally may have bottomed out, which could help attract capital back to the USA. The Morgan Stanley team believes there is tradable rebound potential around 5,500 points in the S&P 500 Index. Strategists wrote that oversold momentum indicators, strong seasonal performance, and end-of-quarter capital flows will also support the stock market rebound, although market volatility may still persist.

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