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光大证券:油运供需紧张确定性有望进一步增强,继续看好油运景气度提升

Everbright: The tight supply and demand in oil transportation is expected to further strengthen, remaining bullish on the improvement of oil shipping prosperity.

Breakings ·  Jan 18 22:26

According to Everbright's research reports, as the macro economy improves in 2025, China's crude oil demand is expected to contribute some incremental growth, and OPEC+ is about to enter an expansionary production cycle, so the demand for oil transportation in 2025 is still expected to grow. Due to the low volume of new contracts for crude oil tankers signed from 2020 to 2022 and the relatively slow capacity growth in 2024, along with the serious aging of the VLCC fleet, as the scrapping cycle approaches, expectations are that the scrapping of crude oil tankers will gradually offset the new capacity in the long term. Clarksons estimates in December 2024 that the supply-demand gap for crude oil tankers in 2025 will be -1.1% and -1.9% for VLCCs. After the sanctions take effect, the capacity exit for crude oil tankers is expected to accelerate, and the certainty of tight supply and demand in oil transportation is expected to further strengthen, with freight rates likely to continue to rise.

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