Royal Bank of Canada expects that the CPI data to be released tonight will show that inflation has slowed further after accelerating in September and October, but it will not be enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates this month. Overall CPI growth is expected to rise from 2.7% in November to 2.8% in December, due to a narrowing decline in RBOB Gasoline prices, which pushes Energy prices back to levels close to those of the same period last year after four consecutive years of year-on-year declines. The expected drop in core CPI monthly rate is due to a slowdown in rent price growth and other core services, with the core CPI monthly rate expected to decrease to 0.2%. However, this is not enough to offset the recent unexpected upside in economic data, including the non-farm data released last Friday. The Federal Reserve is expected to abandon interest rate cuts in January and maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% throughout 2025.

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加皇银行:美国核心通胀放缓幅度料有限,不足以支持美联储再次降息
Royal Bank of Canada: The slowdown in core inflation in the USA is expected to be limited, insufficient to support the Federal Reserve in lowering interest rates again.
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