China International Capital Corporation believes that Trump may adopt a policy sequence of "first tariffs, then tax cuts, first saving money, and then spending money," prioritizing governance in the four areas of tariffs, immigration, energy, and foreign defense, with tax cuts possibly being delayed because they will increase the fiscal deficit. In the baseline scenario, it is predicted that Trump may promote the implementation of certain tariffs in the second quarter of 2025, with the pace likely approaching. At the same time, the Republican Party may use budget reconciliation in 2025 to push for legislation, passing the first bill related to immigration, energy, and defense spending within 100 days of Trump’s assumption of office, which may include content for reducing fiscal expenditures. In the subsequent second bill, tax reduction plans may be implemented, potentially in the second half of the year. It is expected that the areas for expenditure reduction may include: reducing subsidies for the New energy Fund consumption side, stopping student loan relief, cutting authorized but expired federal spending, streamlining government departments and laying off government employees, and reducing military assistance to Other countries. These measures may be completed under the guidance and advice of the Government Efficiency Department (DOGE) led by Musk and Ramaswamy.
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中金公司:特朗普或采取“先关税、后减税、先省钱、后花钱”的政策顺序
China International Capital Corporation: Trump may adopt a policy sequence of "first tariffs, then tax cuts, first saving money, then spending money."
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