After a smooth year-end transition, facing cash withdrawal demands before the Spring Festival and the possibility of continued issuance of government bonds, the market expects that the central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio in January to offset this. CITIC SEC believes that, referring to the central bank's operating model in previous years before and after the Spring Festival, the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut before the holiday cannot be ruled out. Even if there is no cut, considering the central bank's current rich liquidity management tools and 'moderately loose' MMF policy, it may also be possible to smooth funding fluctuations through various instruments such as reverse repos and government bond purchases. (The Paper)
1月资金面展望:受税期和取现需求扰动,过年前或降准对冲
January funding outlook: Disturbed by tax periods and cash withdrawal demands, there may be a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival to offset.
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