Adds EIA Storage Report and Latest Prices
增加能源信息管理局存儲報告和最新價格
By Scott Disavino
作者: 斯科特·迪薩維諾
Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Natural Gas Futures Slid About 2% on Thursday on an Increase in Daily Output and a Federal Report Showing Utilities Added More Gas to Storage Than Usual Last Week for a Fourth Week in a Row, the First Such Consecutive Run Since October 2022.
11月14日(路透社) - 美國天然氣期貨週四滑落約2%,原因是每日產量增加,以及一份聯邦報告顯示公用事業上週連續第四周增加了更多的燃料幣儲存,這是自2022年10月以來首次出現如此連續的運行。
That Price Decline Came Despite Forecasts for Colder Weather and More Heating Demand Over the Next Two Weeks Than Previously Expected and the Increase in the Amount of Gas Flowing to the Country's Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Export Plants to a Nine-Month High.
儘管對未來兩週的寒冷天氣和比之前預期更多的供暖需求的預報,以及流向美國液化天然氣(LNG)出口工廠的燃料幣量增加至九個月的最高水平,價格仍然下降。
Front-Month Gas Futures Ngc1 for December Delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange Fell 6.7 Cents, or 2.3%, to $2.916 per Million British Thermal Units (Mmbtu) at 10:40 A.m. Edt (1540 Gmt). on Wednesday, the Contract Closed at Its Highest Since June 12.
前月天然氣期貨 Ngc1 將在紐約 商業交易所的 12 月交貨的天然氣期貨下跌 6.7 美分,或 2.3%,至每一百萬英熱單位 (Mmbtu) 2.916 美元,時間爲東部夏令時間上午 10:40(格林威治標準時間 1540)。週三,合約在 6 月 12 日以來最高點收盤。
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Said Utilities Added 42 Billion Cubic Feet (Bcf) of Gas Into Storage During the Week Ended Nov. 8.
美國能源信息管理局 (EIA) 表示,公用事業在截至 11 月 8 日的一週內,向儲存中添加了 420億立方英尺 (Bcf) 的燃料幣。
That Was in Line With the 44-Bcf Build Analysts Forecast in a Reuters Poll and Compares With an Increase of 41 Bcf in the Same Week Last Year and a Five-Year (2019-2023) Average Rise of 29 Bcf for This Time of Year. EIA/Gas Ngas/Poll
這與分析師在路透社民意調查中預測的 44 億立方英尺的增量一致,並且與去年同一週的 41 億立方英尺的增加相比,以及 2019-2023 年五年平均在此時的增加 29 億立方英尺相比較。 EIA/燃料幣 Ngas/Poll
Analysts Said Mild Weather Over the Last Month Kept Heating Demand Low, Allowing Utilities to Inject More Gas Into Storage Than Usual. the Forecasters Were so Far Uncertain Whether Utilities Would Add or Pull Gas During the Week Ended Nov. 15 Since Supply and Demand Were Very Close.
分析師表示,過去一個月的溫和天氣使取暖需求保持低位,公用事業公司得以比通常情況注入更多的燃料幣入儲存。氣象預報人員目前尚不確定公用事業公司在截至11月15日的一週內是增加還是抽取氣體,因爲供應和需求非常接近。
Prior to the Last Few Weeks, However, Injections Had Been Smaller Than Usual for 14 Straight Weeks Because Many Producers Reduced Drilling Activities This Year After Average Spot Monthly Prices at the U.S. Henry Hub Ng-W-Hh-Snl Benchmark in Louisiana Fell to a 32-Year Low for the Month of March. Prices Have Remained Relatively Soft Since Then, Dropping to a 23-Year Low in October.
然而,在過去幾周之前,注入量已經連續14周低於正常水平,因爲許多生產商今年減少了鑽探活動,這是由於美國亨利中心的平均現貨月度價格 Ng-W-Hh-Snl 路易斯安那州的基準價格在 三月這個月降至32年來最低。自那時以來,價格仍然相對低迷,跌至23年來的最低點。 十月.
Supply and Demand
供應和需求
Financial Firm Lseg Said Average Gas Output in the Lower 48 U.S. States Eased to 100.2 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (Bcfd) so Far in November, Down From 101.3 Bcfd in October. That Compares With a Record 105.3 Bcfd in December 2023.
金融公司LSEG表示,截至11月,美國本土48個州的平均天然氣產量降至每天1002億立方英尺(Bcfd),低於10月份的101.3 Bcfd。與2023年12月創紀錄的105.3 Bcfd相比。
On a Daily Basis, However, Output Was on Track to Rise by About 2.0 Bcfd Over the Last Four Days to a Six-Day High of 100.5 Bcfd on Thursday, up From a Nine-Month Low of 98.4 Bcfd on Monday.
然而,從日常的角度來看,過去四天的產量預計將上升約2.0 Bcfd,週四達到六天的最高點100.5 Bcfd,高於週一的九個月低點98.4 Bcfd。
Meteorologists Projected Weather in the Lower 48 States Will Remain Warmer Than Normal Through Nov. 20 Before Turning Mostly Colder Than Normal From Nov. 21-29.
氣象學家預計,48個州的天氣將在11月20日之前保持高於正常水平,隨後從11月21日至29日主要轉爲低於正常水平.
With Seasonally Colder Weather Coming, Lseg Forecast Average Gas Demand in the Lower 48, Including Exports, Would Rise From 108.3 Bcfd This Week to 109.8 Bcfd Next Week. Those Forecasts Were Higher Than Lseg's Outlook on Wednesday.
隨着季節性寒冷天氣的到來,LSEG預測在包括出口的情況下,48個州的平均天然氣需求將從本週的108.3 Bcfd增加到下週的109.8 Bcfd。這些預測高於LSEG週三的展望。
The Amount of Gas Flowing to the Seven Big U.S. LNG Export Plants Edged up to an Average of 13.3 Bcfd so Far in November, up From 13.1 Bcfd in October. That Compares With a Monthly Record High of 14.7 Bcfd in December 2023.
截至11月,流向美國七大LNG出口工廠的天然氣量略微上升至平均13.3 Bcfd,較10月的13.1 Bcfd有所增加。這與2023年12月的每月紀錄高點14.7 Bcfd相比。
On a Daily Basis, LNG Feedgas Was on Track to Rise From 14.0 Bcfd on Wednesday to a Nine-Month High of 14.4 Bcfd on Thursday as Flows to a Few Plants Hit Multi-Week Highs.
從日常的角度來看,LNG的飼氣預計將從週三的14.0 Bcfd上升到一個 九個月高點 週四達到14.4 Bcfd,因爲幾個工廠的流量達到數週來的最高點。
|
Week Ended Nov 8 Forecast |
Week Ended Nov 1 Actual |
Year Ago Nov 8 |
Five-Year Average Nov 8 |
|
U.S. Weekly Natgas Storage Change (Bcf): |
+44 |
+69 |
+41 |
+29 |
|
U.S. Total Natgas in Storage (Bcf): |
3,976 |
3,932 |
3,816 |
3,746 |
|
U.S. Total Storage Versus 5-Year Average |
6.1% |
5.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per Mmbtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2023 |
Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub Ngc1 |
2.95 |
2.98 |
3.06 |
2.66 |
3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (Ttf) Trnlttfmc1 |
13.91 |
13.52 |
14.45 |
13.04 |
14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (Jkm) Jkmc1 |
13.56 |
13.57 |
17.02 |
14.39 |
14.31 |
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Lseg Heating (Hdd), Cooling (Cdd) and Total (Tdd) Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. Gfs Hdds |
286 |
263 |
255 |
283 |
305 |
U.S. Gfs Cdds |
7 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
9 |
U.S. Gfs Tdds |
293 |
273 |
265 |
295 |
314 |
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Lseg U.S. Weekly Gfs Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2019-2023) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (Bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
100.9 |
99.5 |
99.4 |
104.3 |
98.0 |
U.S. Imports From Canada |
8.5 |
9.0 |
8.0 |
N/a |
7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply |
109.4 |
108.4 |
107.4 |
N/a |
105.9 |
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|
|
U.S. Demand (Bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
N/a |
2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
5.6 |
5.8 |
6.1 |
N/a |
5.5 |
U.S. LNG Exports |
12.4 |
14.0 |
14.3 |
13.8 |
11.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
8.0 |
9.6 |
10.5 |
8.8 |
11.5 |
U.S. Residential |
10.6 |
13.6 |
15.8 |
11.8 |
16.8 |
U.S. Power Plant |
33.1 |
32.7 |
29.8 |
28.7 |
28.8 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.7 |
23.1 |
23.5 |
22.6 |
24.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
81.7 |
86.2 |
86.9 |
79.1 |
90.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
102.1 |
108.3 |
109.8 |
N/a |
109.4 |
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N/a Is Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (Nwrfc) at the Dalles Dam |
2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2003 % of Normal Actual |
2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-SEP |
92 |
91 |
74 |
83 |
107 |
Jan-Jul |
87 |
86 |
76 |
77 |
102 |
Oct-SEP |
89 |
88 |
77 |
76 |
103 |
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U.S. Weekly Power Generation Percent by Fuel - EIA |
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Week Ended Nov 15 |
Week Ended Nov 8 |
2023 |
2022 |
2021 |
Wind |
13 |
13 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
5 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
Hydro |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
Other |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
42 |
43 |
41 |
38 |
37 |
Coal |
13 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
23 |
Nuclear |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
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Snl U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per Mmbtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
|
|
|
Henry Hub Ng-W-Hh-Snl |
2.06 |
1.92 |
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|
Transco Z6 New York Ng-CG-NY-Snl |
2.00 |
1.86 |
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PG&E Citygate Ng-CG-Pge-Snl |
3.67 |
2.98 |
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Eastern Gas (Old Dominion South) Ng-Pcn-App-Snl |
1.81 |
1.71 |
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Chicago Citygate Ng-CG-CH-Snl |
2.01 |
1.88 |
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Algonquin Citygate Ng-CG-Bs-Snl |
2.60 |
2.79 |
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Socal Citygate Ng-Scl-Cgt-Snl |
2.59 |
2.62 |
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Waha Hub Ng-Wah-Wtx-Snl |
-0.47 |
-0.52 |
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Aeco Ng-Ash-Alb-Snl |
0.77 |
0.64 |
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Snl U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per Megawatt-Hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
|
|
|
New England El-Pk-Npms-Snl |
54.00 |
46.00 |
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Pjm West El-Pk-Pjmw-Snl |
42.75 |
42.50 |
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ERCOT North El-Pk-Ertn-Snl |
22.75 |
29.88 |
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|
|
Mid C El-Pk-Midc-Snl |
30.00 |
27.00 |
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Palo Verde El-Pk-Plvd-Snl |
26.50 |
32.75 |
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SP-15 El-Pk-SP15-Snl |
36.00 |
36.00 |
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截至11月8日的一週預測 |
截至11月1日的一週實際數據 |
去年同期11月8日 |
五年平均 11月8日 |
|
美國每週天然氣存儲變化(十億立方英尺): |
+44 |
+69 |
+41 |
+29 |
|
美國儲氣總量(Bcf): |
3,976 |
3,932 |
3,816 |
3,746 |
|
美國總儲備量對比5年平均水平 |
6.1% |
5.8% |
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全球燃料幣基準期貨(每百萬英熱單位美元) |
當前日 |
前一天 |
去年同月 |
2023年前一年平均水平 |
五年平均(2018-2022) |
Henry Hub Ngc1 |
2.95%。 |
2.98 |
3.06 |
2.66 |
3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Trnlttfmc1 |
13.91 |
13.52 |
14.45 |
13.04 |
14.39 |
日本韓國基準 (JKM) Jkmc1 |
13.56 |
13.57 |
17.02 |
14.39 |
14.31 |
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Lseg供熱(Hdd)、製冷(Cdd)和總(Tdd)度日 |
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兩週總體預測 |
當前日 |
前一天 |
往年 |
10年平均 |
30年平均 |
美國GFS HDDs |
286 |
263 |
255 |
283 |
305 |
U.S. Gfs Cdds |
7 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
9 |
U.S. Gfs Tdds |
293 |
273 |
265 |
295 |
314 |
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LSEG美國每週供應和需求預測 |
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上週 |
本週 |
6月28日,美國經濟分析局公佈了5月份的個人消費支出物價指數。共識估計是PCE物價指數同比增長2.6%,比前一個月少了0.1個百分點。不計算食品和能源價格的核心PCE指數也預計上漲2.6%,比之前少0.2個百分點。基礎核心PCE指數的年增長率爲2.8%,是2021年3月以來最低的聯儲局偏愛的通脹衡量標準。 |
去年的這周 |
月度五年(2019-2023年)平均 |
美國供應(Bcfd) |
|
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|
|
美國48個低產地幹氣生產 |
100.9 |
99.5 |
99.4 |
104.3 |
98.0 |
美國從加拿大進口 |
8.5 |
9.0 |
8.0 |
N/a |
7.8 |
美國液化天然氣進口 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
美國總供應 |
109.4 |
108.4 |
107.4 |
N/a |
105.9 |
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美國需求(Bcfd) |
|
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美國出口到加拿大 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
N/a |
2.9 |
美國出口到墨西哥 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
6.1 |
N/a |
5.5 |
美國液化天然氣出口 |
12.4 |
14.0 |
14.3 |
13.8 |
11.0 |
美國商業 |
8.0 |
9.6 |
10.5 |
8.8 |
11.5 |
美國住宅 |
10.6 |
13.6 |
15.8 |
11.8 |
16.8 |
美國發電廠 |
33.1 |
32.7 |
29.8 |
28.7 |
28.8 |
美國工業 |
22.7 |
23.1 |
23.5 |
22.6 |
24.3 |
美國工廠燃料 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
美國管道分銷 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
公司將按照計劃所規定的條件出售和發行普通股。這些普通股已獲得授權並將在全額支付所規定的代價的情況下發行,且按照計劃中的規定獎勵。作爲開曼群島法律規定,只有在其已被納入成員(股東)登記冊時,股份才被認爲已發行。 |
美國車輛燃料 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
美國總消費 |
81.7 |
86.2 |
86.9 |
79.1 |
90.0 |
美國總需求 |
|
108.3 |
109.8 |
N/a |
109.4 |
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N/A 不可用 |
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美國西北部河流預測中心(Nwrfc)位於達爾斯水壩 |
2025當前日常降雨預測百分比 |
2025 前一天正常預測的百分比 |
2024 實際正常百分比 |
2003 實際正常百分比 |
2022 實際正常百分比 |
4月至9月 |
92 |
91 |
74 |
83 |
107 |
1-7月 |
87 |
86 |
76 |
77 |
102 |
Oct-SEP |
89 |
88 |
77 |
76 |
103 |
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美國每週能源生成方式百分比 - 美國能源情報署 |
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截至11月15日的一週 |
截至11月8日的一週 |
2023 |
2022 |
2021 |
風能 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
太陽能 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
水力 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
其他 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
石油股 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
天然氣 |
42 |
43 |
41 |
38 |
37 |
煤,煤 |
13 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
23 |
核能 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
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Snl美國天然氣次日價格(每百萬英國熱單位美元) |
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Hub |
當前日 |
前一天 |
|
|
|
Henry Hub Ng-W-Hh-Snl |
2.06 |
1.92 |
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|
Transco Z6 紐約 Ng-CG-NY-Snl |
2.00 |
1.86 |
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太平洋煤氣電力交易所 Ng-CG-Pge-Snl |
3.67 |
2.98 |
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|
東部燃氣(Old Dominion South) Ng-Pcn-App-Snl |
1.81 |
1.71 |
|
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|
Chicago Citygate Ng-CG-CH-Snl |
2.01 |
1.88 |
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Algonquin Citygate Ng-CG-Bs-Snl |
2.60 |
2.79 |
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南加城市門 Ng-Scl-Cgt-Snl |
2.59 |
2.62 |
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|
Waha Hub Ng-Wah-Wtx-Snl |
-0.47 |
-0.52 |
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Aeco Ng-Ash-Alb-Snl |
0.77 |
0.64 |
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Snl美國電力次日價格(每兆瓦時美元) |
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Hub |
當前日 |
前一天 |
|
|
|
New England El-Pk-Npms-Snl |
54.00 |
46.00 |
|
|
|
Pjm West El-Pk-Pjmw-Snl |
42.75 |
42.50 |
|
|
|
ERCOt 北 El-Pk-Ertn-Snl |
22.75 |
29.88 |
|
|
|
Mid C El-Pk-Midc-Snl |
30.00 |
27.00 |
|
|
|
Palo Verde El-Pk-Plvd-Snl |
26.50 |
32.75 |
|
|
|
SP-15 El-Pk-SP15-Snl |
36.00 |
36.00 |
|
|
|
(Reporting by Scott Disavino; Editing by Shreya Biswas and Barbara Lewis)
(報道:Scott Disavino;編輯:Shreya Biswas 和 Barbara Lewis)
((Scott.disavino@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: Scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@Reuters.net))
((Scott.disavino@Thomsonreuters.com;+1 332 219 1922;Reuters消息:Scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@Reuters.net))
For Gas Data on the Lseg Terminal Type Energy in the Search Bar and Then Go to the Gas Drop Down and the North America Drop Down.
For Interactive Map, Type 'interactive Map' in the Box at Upper Left of the Lseg Terminal
For Graphics on Baker Hughes Rig Counts, See: Http://Graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/Rigcount/Index.html
For Next-Day Snl U.S. Gas Prices, See: 0#Snl-Ng
For Next-Day Snl U.S. Power Prices, See: 0#Snl-Pwr
For U.S. Natgas Price and Storage Polls, See: Ngas/Poll
For U.S. Nuclear Power Outages, See: Nuke/
For U.S. Northwest Hydro Power Report, See: Nwrfc
For U.S./Canada Natural Gas Rig Count Vs Henry Hub Futures Price, See: Http://Tmsnrt.rs/2Et9K44
For the U.S. Natural Gas Speed Guide, See: Usgas
For the U.S. Power Speed Guide, See: Uspower
To Determine CFTC Managed Money Net Position Add (Nymex Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 3023651Mnet) Plus (Ice Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 3023391Mnet Divided by Four) Plus (Nymex Henry Hub Swaps Options and Futures Combined 303565Bmnet Divided by Four) Plus (Nymex Henry Hub Penultimate Gas Swaps 303565Cmnet Divided by Four)
Nymex Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 0#3CFTC023651
Nymex Henry Hub Futures Only 0#1CFTC023651
Ice Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 0#3CFTC023391
Nymex Henry Hub Swaps Options and Futures Combined 0#3CFTC03565B
Nymex Henry Hub Penultimate Gas Swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
要在Lseg終端上查看燃料幣數據,請在搜索欄中鍵入能源,然後轉到燃料幣和北美下拉菜單。
要查看交互地圖,請在Lseg終端左上角的框中鍵入'交互地圖'
有關baker hughes鑽井數量的圖表,請參見:Http://Graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/Rigcount/Index.html
要查看次日SNL美國燃料價格,請參閱: 0#Snl-Ng
欲了解未來一天的Snl美國電力價格,請參閱: 0#Snl-Pwr
欲了解美國天然氣價格和儲存調查,請參閱: Ngas/Poll
欲了解美國核電停機情況,請參閱: Nuke/
欲了解美國西北部水電報告,請參閱: Nwrfc
有關美國/加拿大天然氣鑽井數量與亨利港期貨價格的對比,請參見:Http://Tmsnrt.rs/2Et9K44
對於美國天然氣速度指南,請參閱: Usgas
對於美國電力速度指南,請參閱: Uspower
要判斷CFTC管理的資金淨頭寸增加(Nymex Henry Hub期權和期貨合併 3023651Mnet)加(冰天然氣亨利菲盧布期權和期貨合併 3023391Mnet 除以四再加(nyme亨利菲盧布掉期期權和期貨合併 303565Bmnet 除以四再加(nyme亨利菲盧布前天然氣掉期 303565Cmnet 除以四再加
Nymex Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 0#3CFTC023651
Nymex Henry Hub Futures Only 0#1CFTC023651
Ice Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 0#3CFTC023391
Nymex Henry Hub Swaps Options and Futures Combined 0#3CFTC03565B
Nymex亨利·哈伯掌握最終燃料幣交換 0#3CFTC03565C