Huge Debt Issuance May Keep BOJ From Accelerating QtBy Leika Kihara and Takahiko Wada
作者：Kihara Leika 和 Dakahiko
Tokyo, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan Is Likely to Raise Interest Rates in Coming Months With January Emerging as the Most Likely Timing, When There Will Be More Clarity on Political and Market Developments, Former BOJ Board Member Makoto Sakurai Said on Tuesday.
東京，11月5日（路透社）— 日本央行前董事會成員櫻井誠週二表示，日本央行可能會在未來幾個月內提高利率，其中1月是最有可能的時機，屆時政治和市場發展將更加明確。
The Central Bank Will Eventually Aim to Raise Short-Term Borrowing Costs - Currently at 0.25% - to 1.5% or 2% by the End of Governor Kazuo Ueda's Term in April 2028, He Said.
他說，中央銀行最終的目標是在2028年4月行長上田和夫的任期結束之前將短期借貸成本（目前爲0.25％）提高至1.5％或2％。
"the BOJ Probably Wants to Hike Rates Once More by March Next Year. the Exact Timing Will Depend Much on Market and Political Developments," Sakurai Told Reuters in an Interview.
櫻井在接受路透社採訪時告訴路透社：「日本央行可能希望在明年3月之前再次加息。確切的時機將在很大程度上取決於市場和政治發展。」
"With Domestic Politics Still in Flux, Acting in December Might Be Tricky. January Seems to Be More Likely as the BOJ Would Have More Data Including on Whether Consumption and Wage Growth Will Hold up," Said Sakurai, Who Retains Close Contact With Incumbent Policymakers.
「由於國內政治仍在不斷變化，在12月採取行動可能很棘手。一月份似乎更有可能，因爲日本央行將有更多數據，包括消費和工資增長是否會保持不變。」 與現任決策者保持密切聯繫的櫻井說。
But the Chance of a December Rate Hike Would Heighten if the Yen Resumes Its Decline Towards the Three-Decade Trough Near 162 to the Dollar Hit in July, Sakurai Said. the Dollar Stood at 152.45 Yen JPY=Ebs on Tuesday.
但是，櫻井說，如果日元恢復跌至三十年低點，兌7月觸及的美元匯率接近162美元，12月加息的可能性就會增加。美元兌152.45日元 JPY=EBS 在星期二。
"Governor Ueda Emphasised His Resolve to Keep Raising Rates at Last Week's News Conference, Which Seems to Reflect the BOJ's Desire to Avoid Triggering Excessive Yen Falls," Sakurai Said.
“上田州長強調了他在上週繼續加息的決心 新聞發佈會，這似乎反映了日本央行避免引發日元過度下跌的願望，” 櫻井說。
The Dollar Fell Below 152 Yen JPY=Ebs on Thursday When the BOJ Kept Rates Steady, but Signaled the Chance of Near-Term Action by Dropping Language That It Can "Afford to Spend Time" Scrutinising the Fallout From U.S.-Related Downside Risks.
美元跌破152日元 JPY=EBS 週四日本央行保持利率穩定時，但是 爲機會發出了信號 通過刪除其 「負擔得起時間」 的措辭來審查與美國相關的下行風險的後果，從而採取短期行動。
The BOJ Next Meets for a Policy Meeting on Dec. 18-19, Followed by Another Meeting on Jan. 23-24.
日本央行下次於12月18日至19日舉行政策會議，隨後於1月23日至24日舉行另一次會議。
The BOJ Made a Landmark Exit From a Decade-Long Stimulus Programme in March and Raised Its Short-Term Policy Target to 0.25% in July on the View Japan Was Making Progress Towards Sustainably Hitting Its 2% Inflation Target.
日本央行在3月份對長達十年的刺激計劃進行了具有里程碑意義的退出，並在7月份將其短期政策目標上調至0.25％，理由是日本在可持續實現其2％的通脹目標方面正在取得進展。
Ueda Has Stressed the BOJ's Readiness to Keep Raising Rates if the Economy and Prices Move in Line With Its Forecast.
上田強調，如果經濟和物價走勢符合其預期，日本央行準備繼續加息。
While Most Analysts Expect the BOJ to Hike Again by the March End of the Current Fiscal Year, They Are Split on Whether the Bank Would Act in December - or Wait Until January or March.
而 大多數分析師 預計日本央行將在本財年的3月底之前再次加息，他們對該銀行是在12月採取行動還是等到1月或3月採取行動的問題上存在分歧。
The Loss of a Majority by Japan's Ruling Coalition in an Election on Oct. 27 Has Heightened Concerns About Policy Paralysis With Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba Being Forced to Court Opposition Parties to Stay in Power.
日本執政聯盟在10月27日的選舉中失去多數席位，這加劇了人們對政策癱瘓的擔憂，首相石場茂被迫向反對黨求婚，要求他們繼續執政。
The Political Uncertainty, Coupled With Potential Market Turbulence After the U.S. Presidential Election, Could Prod the BOJ to Stand Pat in December, Sakurai Said.
政治不確定性，加上之後的潛在市場動盪 美國總統大選，櫻井說，可能會促使日本央行在12月袖手旁觀。
Another Key Factor for the BOJ Is Whether Wage Hikes Would Broaden to Smaller Firms and Underpin Consumption, He Added.
他補充說，日本央行的另一個關鍵因素是工資上漲是否會擴大到小型企業並支撐消費。
After Hiking Rates Again by March Next Year, the BOJ Will Probably Aim to Raise Short-Term Rates Once or Twice a Year From Fiscal 2025 to 2027, to Bring It to 1.5% or 2%, Sakurai Said.
櫻井說，在明年3月再次提高利率之後，日本央行的目標可能是從2025財年到2027財年每年提高一次或兩次短期利率，使其達到1.5％或2％。
"There's Too Much Uncertainty to Predict the Exact Pace of Further Rate Hikes. but the BOJ Is Probably Hoping to Hike Rates to Around 2% in the Long-Term Horizon," He Added.
他補充說：「預測進一步加息的確切步伐的不確定性太大。但日本央行可能希望在長期內將利率提高到2％左右。」
Japan's Expected Huge Debt Issuance and Political Calls for Bigger Fiscal Spending, However, Could Constrain the BOJ's Plan to Taper Its Bond Purchases, Sakurai Said.
但是，櫻井說，日本預期的巨額債務發行和增加財政支出的政治呼籲可能會限制日本央行縮減債券購買規模的計劃。
The BOJ Announced in July a Plan to Halve Its Monthly JGB Buying to 3 Trillion Yen ($19.7 Billion) as of January-March 2026, Which Would Reduce Its Huge Balance Sheet by up to 8%.
日本央行宣佈 七月 計劃從2026年1月至3月將其每月國債購買量減半至3萬億日元（合197億美元），這將使其龐大的資產負債表減少多達8％。
The Central Bank Will Conduct a Review of Its Existing Quantitative Tightening (Qt) Programme in June Next Year, to Come up With a Tapering Plan From April 2026 Onward.
中央銀行將於明年6月對其現有的量化緊縮（Qt）計劃進行審查，以制定從2026年4月起的縮減計劃。
While the BOJ May Prefer to Further Reduce Its Bond Buying, It May Find It Hard to Do so Given Expected Increases in Debt Issuance to Pay for Roll-Overs of Maturing Bonds and Additional Spending Plans, Sakurai Said.
櫻井說，儘管日本央行可能更願意進一步減少其債券購買量，但鑑於預計債務發行量將增加，以支付到期債券的展期和額外支出計劃，它可能很難做到這一點。
"the BOJ May Be Forced to Keep Buying Roughly 3 Trillion Yen Worth of Bonds Well Beyond Fiscal 2026," He Said.
他說：「日本央行可能被迫在2026財年之後繼續購買價值約3萬億日元的債券。」
($1 = 152.3900 Yen)
（1 美元 = 152.3900 日元）
(Reporting by Leika Kihara and Takahiko Wada; Editing by Kim Coghill)
（Leika Kihara 和 Takahiko Wada 報道；Kim Coghill 編輯）
((Leika.kihara@Thomsonreuters.com; +813-6441-1828; Reuters Messaging: Leika.kihara.reuters.com@Reuters.net))
((Leika.kihara@Thomsonreuters.com；+813-6441-1828；路透社消息： Leika.kihara.reuters.com@Reuters.net))
