A recent analyst report from Mizuho shows that as the opportunity for cash-to-card business in the USA approaches saturation, the shares of Visa (V.US) and Mastercard (MA.US) in consumer spending have been declining for several consecutive quarters. Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev wrote in a report last week: 'We believe that the share of personal consumption expenditure growth is a key measure to evaluate the growth trajectory of Visa and Mastercard in the USA.' Historically, Visa has captured 61% share of the incremental personal consumption expenditure in the USA, with the measure being the change in Visa's payment volume in the USA following changes in personal consumption expenditure. From the third quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2024, Visa's share in the 5-year consumer spending growth is 47%, slightly lower than the second quarter, while the average share in the first half of 2013 was 52%. Historically, Mastercard has held 22% of the incremental consumer spending in the USA, from the third quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2024, its share in the 5-year consumer spending growth is 20%, slightly down from the previous quarter, with the average share in 2023 being 22%.