Deutsche Bank said that despite recent polls leaning towards a Trump victory, market pricing remains cautious. Although there is discussion in the market about the 'Trump trade,' the pricing of a Trump victory remains very cautious. Deutsche Bank illustrates this through the dollar in the forex market and a basket of S&P 500 index component companies most sensitive to tariffs. They believe that the drop in the euro to dollar exchange rate from 1.12 to 1.09 is mainly due to the reevaluation of market expectations towards the Federal Reserve after strong US employment data was released. They also point out that the stock prices of a basket of S&P 500 index component companies sensitive to tariffs have been trading sideways, only recently showing poor performance, aligning with recent trends in public opinion polls. Deutsche Bank wrote: "The market has started pricing in an increased probability of a Trump victory, but the impact of this situation on market pricing remains relatively small."