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华创证券:政策组合拳落地 稳风险提预期

Huachuang Securities: Policy Combination Landed, Stabilizing Risks and Enhancing Expectations.

Breakings ·  Sep 24 15:01

Huachuang Securities research report pointed out that on September 24, 2024, the State Council Information Office held a press conference and announced: 1) a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut; 2) a 50 basis point reduction in existing mortgage loan rates, unifying the down payment ratio for first-time and second-home buyers, with the second-home down payment ratio lowered to 15%; 3) the establishment of new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market. The reserve requirement ratio cut combined with interest rate reduction and adjustment to existing mortgage rates has been implemented, surpassing expectations in terms of policy intensity and pace. Expectations for related refinancing and the 16 financial policies will also provide assurance for the stability of bank asset quality. The short-term reduction in existing mortgage loan rates will impact bank profits, but since September, bank indices have already fully and preemptively reflected the expectations of this round of policies. Looking ahead, the overall impact on sector fundamentals is neutral. Considering that mid-term dividends have materialized, the current sector dividend strategy logic remains unchanged. If this round of policies can effectively stimulate real estate and consumption recovery, a bullish view is held on cyclical strategy space and opportunities, with a recommendation to focus on: CM Bank, Bank of Ningbo, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank, among others. At the same time, optimistic about the improvement in market risk appetite driving insurance and brokerage stocks, it is suggested to pay attention to leading insurance companies and brokerage firms, such as China Life Insurance, New China Life Insurance, Citic Securities, etc.

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