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国泰君安:白酒消费 “去地产依附”和“去奢侈”特征会持续凸显

GTJA: The characteristics of "moving away from real estate dependency" and "moving away from luxury" in baijiu consumption will continue to be prominent.

Breakings ·  Sep 13 07:36

GTJA indicates that in the 2024 peak season, apart from Maotai and Wuliangye, liquor companies generally have relaxed their pricing systems and increased their expenses at the sales level. Looking ahead, it is speculated that the characteristics of "moving away from real estate dependency" and "moving away from luxury" will continue to be prominent in baijiu consumption. In this dimension, "market share is brand", and enterprises can leverage their own advantages in product structure depth, strong channels, big brands, and large production capacity, as well as appropriate price positioning, to continuously squeeze out competitors. In the future, the main contradiction for investment in the baijiu sector will be the rebalancing of supply and demand and the restructuring of industry growth expectations. In this dimension, the market pays more attention to destocking and the new equilibrium of high-end baijiu batch prices. The subsequent sales performance of core products and their apparent growth rate will match. Maotai and other high-end baijiu batch prices will reach a new stable state after the peak season, which will support the valuation of the sector. Companies need to make urgent choices regarding their operational strategic direction. Except for a few brands such as Maotai, enterprises that are less constrained by price and product structure will have a competitive advantage in the future. Companies need to establish suitable market share strategies based on local conditions and observe the flexibility of their strategic decisions.

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