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分析师:市场对沃勒讲话反应过头了 仍未有明确证据支撑50个基点的降息

Analyst: The market has overreacted to Powell's speech and there is still no clear evidence to support a 50 basis point rate cut.

Breakings ·  Sep 6 23:29

Analyst Cameron Crise said that the highly anticipated speech by Williams caused market volatility, with one notable statement being that if necessary, he would support taking strong action/early rate cuts. However, the market overlooked the role of "if" in the sentence. Williams used a considerable amount of time in his speech to explain why he is quite optimistic about the prospect of continued economic expansion, why the Taylor Rule is descriptive rather than predictive, and how the type of shock that has not appeared so far usually triggers a recession. He actually hinted that more data is needed to determine the final extent and pace of easing, so from his perspective, decision-makers clearly have not yet decided how aggressive to be. Combining these remarks with Williams' earlier remarks, there is still no convincing evidence to suggest that the FOMC will cut rates by 50 basis points. It is also worth noting that Williams said, "At the time of the Fed's implementation of a series of rate cuts, I believe there is enough room to lower policy rates and still maintain some limits to ensure that inflation continues towards the 2% target," which is reflected in the employment data. In some ways, the initial market reaction looks a bit exaggerated.

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