If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as market expects, the gold price in the current economic cycle will far exceed $3,000 per ounce. If US inflation slows down and the labor market cools down, allowing the Fed to cumulatively reduce the benchmark interest rate by 225 basis points by the end of 2025, the gold price could reach $3,229. This forecast is based on an analysis of the actual situation during the loose cycle of the Fed since the early 2000s. Overall, for every 25 basis points reduction in the benchmark interest rate, the gold price tends to rise by about 6.3%. If the Fed's loose action is more moderate, the peak price of gold will be lower than the above forecast. Gold has risen 22% so far this year, reflecting that the market has already digested the 88 basis points of policy easing.