USA interest rate options traders are accepting a new bet related to the trend of the Federal Reserve interest rate: there will be a decrease of up to 300 basis points in the next nine months (equivalent to 12 interest rate cuts at a regular 25 basis points interval). In the past three trading days, the position of the options market related to overnight financing rates with guarantees shows that these bets will benefit if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to the low point of 2.25% in the first quarter of 2025. Such a result seems unlikely unless the US economy suddenly falls into recession. Considering that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 75 basis points during this period, this is a radical bet. Some people are now increasing their bets to hedge against the consequences of tail risks, such as rapid and extreme interest rate cuts.